Category: Uncategorized

Item #1: Taleb is fanning the flames of crisis again. He wants another World War or a nuclear war so he can say ‘I told so you so’ for having predicted a black swan, or something like that. The fundamental difference today between the left and right is the latter is on the side of… Continue reading The daily view 11/6/2023 Taleb, Republican Aristocracy, Wokeness, and Philosophy

Item #1: Bitcoin is lagging tech again. As shown below, QQQ, in blue, is up an astonishing 4%–one of its biggest weeks ever for the year–, while Bitcoin is flat: So I’m back to being always right again. I was right about tech recovering, having added to the dip on Meta and SVIX last week.… Continue reading The daily view 11/3/2023: Stocks surge and Bitcoin falls, IQ circularity, Ozempic, South Korea schools

Growth Is Up. So What’s Up With the Economy? I don’t think we should minimize that strength. America’s economic performance since the end of the pandemic has substantially outpaced the rest of the developed world and has also very substantially bested the performance of the Chinese economy. Inflation is still elevated, but is well below… Continue reading Why Americans are incredulous about the strong economy

In 2022 as Substack was gaining popularity as the hottest new blogging platform, I had amassed of list over thirty blogs I was following. I would refresh the blogs daily, but this proved cumbersome and I would sometimes lose track of certain blogs if they hadn’t been updated in a while. I could use the… Continue reading Why Substack’s subscription model does Not scale well, and is losing ground to Twitter

Item 1: It looks like I was wrong about Bitcoin, with the price having surged to $34,000…or am i? It’s just a deadcat bounce, and I remain short. I am down on my latest short at $28.5k, but not a problem. Temporary losses are an inevitable part of trading. According to this excellent article, the… Continue reading The daily view: 10/27/2023: No Bitcoin ETF, Low-trust Societies, Meta/tech Earnings

From Richard Hanania’s post Against Idealism, this passage stood out: No one in the 1960s ever said “You know, I just read Marcuse and, given his influence in intellectual circles, I can predict that in future decades we’ll have a country where you can’t have standardized tests in hiring and corporations will praise dead black… Continue reading Cognitive Screening is Legal, the last holdout of wokeness

Speculation that GLP-1 weight loss drugs will hurt food companies’ sales is way premature. I discuss this in an earlier blog post, but to expound: These drugs are expensive, can have bad side effects, and success is highly variable. Some people lose a lot of weight (like going from 270lbs to 170lbs), and others much… Continue reading Food companies have little to fear from new weight loss drugs, and why I am NOT investing in Eli Lilly

I think my Feb 2023 article America’s Threats are Always on the Horizon, Hypothetical aged well. In early to mid 2023 everyone assumed that the next crisis would involve at least one of the following: -Nuclear war or a world war involving Ukraine, Russia, and or neighboring countries -AI-apocalypse due to unstoppable GPU clusters -Trade… Continue reading Looking for crisis in the wrong place

From Reuters, Elon Musk’s X is a black hole of value: Put it all together, and X isn’t just worth less than Musk paid for it, but likely less than its debt. Assume that the company’s revenue last year was $4.7 billion, based on results before it was taken private. If advertising has dropped by… Continue reading The situation at Twitter isn’t as bad as the media hype would suggest

Item #1: Bitcoin surged to $28,500 on Monday on hopes an ETF will be approved. Here we go again. If history is any guide, all Bitcoin ETFs will be rejected still. The SEC has until January 10, 2024 to decide on the Ark Bitcoin ETF, which it almost certainly will reject. Three months is an… Continue reading The Daily View: 10/18/2023: Meta, Bitcoin, and more