Just like how in 2023 I singled-out META, which was among the strongest-preforming stocks of the S&P 500, for 2024, as part of my epic-sized prediction post, I am singling-out SVIX and META again for 2024. No need to change anything. For 2023, META only came up second to Nvidia (the others were/are not on… Continue reading 2024 predictions cont. (Meta, SVIX, McDonald’s, weight loss drugs, etc.)
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2024 predictions, and recap of 2023
My predictions for 2023 were spot-on, only being wrong about Bitcoin going up. I was right about the stock market surging, about inflation fears subsiding, about Trump not going to jail, etc. It could not have gone better. Meta stock, which I singled-out in Jan 2023, was among the best-performing stocks of the S&P 500,… Continue reading 2024 predictions, and recap of 2023
The NYTs sues Open Ai–Why the case is not a slam-dunk for the NYTs
The NYTs’ lawsuit against Open Ai, filed last week, is going viral. Some are predicting it will be a major blow to Open Ai and related companies and technology: Complaint (PDF). The NY Times Lawsuit Against OpenAI Would Open Up The NY Times To All Sorts Of Lawsuits Should It Win. Things are about to… Continue reading The NYTs sues Open Ai–Why the case is not a slam-dunk for the NYTs
2023 Bitcoin Method Recap, and Efficient Markets
This feels like the longest holiday week ever. 2023 was a good year in terms of gains from a combination of the Bitcoin shorting method , leveraged tech funds, Meta, etc. Regarding the Bitcoin method, as discussed earlier, I would go short Bitcoin before the market open and then cover it at the close. And… Continue reading 2023 Bitcoin Method Recap, and Efficient Markets
Midwit Syndrome
Without obvious signifiers of very-high IQ, it’s hard to differentiate between, say, an IQ of 130 or 160 when it comes to object-level issues. For example, what is the ‘high-IQ position’ on Ukraine vs. Russia? Or Ai risk? Or the Israeli–Palestinian conflict? It does not exist. There are high-IQ people on either extremes of these… Continue reading Midwit Syndrome
The Republican Party is Not Doomed
From Tracing Woodgrains: The Republican Party is Doomed. He begins by making a bold, attention-grabbing assertion “The republican Party is doomed” and subsequently walks back on his original claim. I don’t mean they’ll lose every election moving forward. My case, rather, is this: they know exactly what they want someone to do, but in an… Continue reading The Republican Party is Not Doomed
The Daily View: 12/23/2023 Bitcoin Scorecard, Nike Earnings, Trump, and Seed Oils
Item #1: Bitcoin scorecard. A Bitcoin ETF may be approved, but if so, it’s an inferior version, called a cash redemption model, and not a ‘true’ ETF. This cash redemption model is a compromise between the issuers and the SEC, instead of outright rejection: exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers iron out details of their filings with… Continue reading The Daily View: 12/23/2023 Bitcoin Scorecard, Nike Earnings, Trump, and Seed Oils
The New ‘Success Sequence’
The ‘success sequence’, conceived in a 2009 Brookings report, describes the roadmap young people ought to follow to optimize their likelihood of success at life. But there are numerous confounders, and I’m skeptical of the data or the conclusions drawn. 1. The underlying variable could be family wealth. Having rich parents or having wealthy in-laws… Continue reading The New ‘Success Sequence’
Five years later, the verdict is in: Big tech beats crypto
In a post from last week I wrote: By being right I mean one or both of the following conditions are met, although they are not necessarily mutually inclusive [2]: Bitcoin is below $25k–and or–it lags the QQQ. My thesis for years has been that ‘big tech’ is the future, not Bitcoin. Accordingly, I am… Continue reading Five years later, the verdict is in: Big tech beats crypto
The Daily View: 12/17/2023: University backlash, Eli Lilly, Morning people, Food, and AI
Item #1: University backlash College presidents have taken heat for not doing more to crackdown on anti-Israel speech, which interestingly in the case of Harvard morphed into a plagiarism scandal involving its president, Claudine Gay. [To settle the matter, she submitted ‘corrections’, which is bullshit given that if this happened to anyone else they would… Continue reading The Daily View: 12/17/2023: University backlash, Eli Lilly, Morning people, Food, and AI