Category: Uncategorized

Item #1: Bitcoin crashes, as I predicted last week, on Iran escalation (and the overall shittiness of cryptocurrency that requires no additional explanation). It’s going all the way back to $20k, maybe lower: When one of the smartest people and best forecaster says Bitcoin is going back to $20k, you better believe it. Contrary to… Continue reading The Daily View 4/13/2024: Bitcoin Crashes, Iran Attack, and ‘Degen communism’

A day does not go by without breathless headlines about advances in AI, chatbots, machine learning, or related technologies. Thanks to the so-called internet-of-things, your iPhone can sync with your dishwasher, and thanks to Neuralink, in the not-too-distant future will sync with your mind. You can summon a chatbot to solve business problems, or use… Continue reading Why the AI can read your mind but nothing works

Item 1: Bitcoin stalls out at $70k, more downside ahead. After crossing $70k on Monday, BTC resumes plunge to $68k as of posting this. The ‘triple top’ in the $60-70k range, as indicated by the red circles, portends to much more downside, possibly as low as $15-20k in a year or so: I have lost… Continue reading The daily view 4/10/2024: Bitcoin, Life Expectancy, Crisis, Ukraine, and IQ

From Noah Smith: The perverse incentives of euthanasia: Suggesting that people die is not a good way of saving taxpayer money. In his attacks on MAID, Noah trots out the usual, easily-countered arguments. First, there’s the possibility that people could simply be denied life-saving treatments if health providers consider MAID a cheaper, acceptable alternative. The… Continue reading Noah Smith on Euthanasia: Why I’m Not Convinced

Daniel Kahneman, who recently passed, is a creation of the media. What I mean is, after the financial crisis, at around 2008-2011, the media collectively made him the most important and highly-cited public intellectual in the world, with an interminable stream of articles praising or referencing his ideas as a matter of fact or truth… Continue reading Daniel Kahneman’s Success: a creation of the media

From Conversations with Tyler, Jonathan Haidt on Adjusting to Smartphones and Social Media (Ep. 209): In The Anxious Generation, Jonathan Haidt explores the simultaneous rise in teen mental illness across various countries, attributing it to a seismic shift from a “play-based childhood” to a “phone-based childhood” around the early 2010s. He argues that the negative… Continue reading Jonathan Haidt, Teen Anxiety, and Smart Phones: Why I am Skeptical

Much ink has been spilled by pundits and commentators alike as to why the college wage premium is so persistent. Often, political correctness is blamed on the overreliance by employers on degrees. However, I think the main reason is competence more so than politics. Due to lowered standards, high school GPAs and graduation rates have… Continue reading Online Obituaries Explain the College Wage Premium

Bitcoin crashed again, falling from $70k to $65k. It’s always the same justification given by the media for why Bitcoin falls, either blaming the fed, inflation, or the economy, but never the fact that Bitcoin is a bubble and unsustainable. The Bitcoin chart is a facsimile of 2022, when it dropped from a peak of… Continue reading Bitcoin: The Disappointment Continues , $20k on the horizon

The huge story is SBF was sentenced to 25 years in federal prison for his role in the collapse of his crypto exchange, FTX. Some thoughts: The 25-year sentence is the midpoint of my prediction of 20-30 years, and and his political donations were of no avail, as I wrote: I think he’ll likely get… Continue reading SBF sentencing: some thoughts. SBF got no favoritism

The stock price of Trump Media Group (DJT) keeps surging, defying predictions of its collapse. Trump’s companies have a history of failing, notably Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts which went public in 1995, but by 2004 filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and was delisted from the New York Stock Exchange. A lot of pundits are… Continue reading Why DJT will not meet a similar fate as past Trump companies