Author: smartistone

It’s interesting how ‘efficiency’ also applies to non-financial things. This can be the tendency of the lines at food stores to have the same waiting time despite differences of line length (e.g. a long line of people with small orders who are paying in cash, versus someone with a huge order that is holding everyone… Continue reading Efficient markets and the replication crisis

This tweet went hugely viral, as many can relate: Sorry but how tf do construction workers get so fat that looks like a hard job idk — Mariè (@p8stie) July 24, 2024 What is the deal with overweight blue-collar workers especially in construction, compared to sedentary office workers, who are comparably more slim? I am… Continue reading Metabolism and IQ, revisited

I saw this post going viral by Richard Hanania, “Indians Are Hated Because They Are Dark and Can’t Play Football.” I agree with Richard that this prejudice against Indians is illogical or irrational. Indian Americans have among the lowest crime and highest achievement on a per capita basis of any minority group. They are the… Continue reading Indians and Football, a response

If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies, by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares debuted a few weeks ago to much initial fanfare. However, I stand by my prediction that this book will have no effect on policy or the direction of AI research. It will soon be forgotten instead of widely debated. Intellectuals and books impart… Continue reading If someone writes it, no one will read it

This is an astute observation by @JackPosobiec, that I had been waiting to respond to: For decades, the American Right has been dominated by the image of the rural conservative — the pickup-driving, small-town patriot with deep roots in red-state soil. You can't help but love this guy. And I certainly do. But there’s a… Continue reading Code-switching and the normcore-right

It’s commonly asked, “What if AI (or the tech industry in general) is a bubble?” This is less important for employees compared to investors. Investors of AI face much more downside risk compared to employees, who are paid first. With a salary, you’re still getting paid every day that you show up. The company could… Continue reading Employees/Tech Workers do Not Need to Care if AI is a Bubble

Many have observed that the Shiller PE Ratio indicator is is close to record highs, at 39 as of writing this, signifying that the stock market (specifically the S&P 500) is overvalued and possibly portending to a crash, as seen in 1999-2000 when the indicator crossed 40: It’s worth to keep in mind that even… Continue reading Why higher stock market valuations may be sustainable

The big story is Trump yesterday (9/19/2025) signed an executive order imposing a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas. Many are celebrating this as a win against ‘big tech’. Reuters described it as a “blow to tech”. The Washington Post called it a “clampdown on legal immigration”. One might expect tech stocks to have reacted negatively… Continue reading Why Trump’s H-1B Fee is Not That Big of a Deal

Warning: lots of finance jargon ahead. The idea behind a hedging strategy is that by trading (e.g shorting or going long) a linear combination of uncorrelated assets of different percentage weightings, that superior risk-adjusted returns or other objective can be attained. A popular strategy is 60% bonds and 40% stocks, with bonds helping to hedge… Continue reading Shorting Bitcoin as the Perfect Hedge

I saw this going viral “Humanity will shrink, far sooner than you think.” Although the issue is often described in alarmist language, the evidence shows that population decline remains very gradual. Japan, the posterchild of low fertility, has only seen its population fall a tiny bit since peaking, from 127 million in 2000 to presently… Continue reading Population crisis and social arbitrage