The ‘doom loop’ is composed of Epstein, Iran-Israel (and maybe Gaza) and tariffs, that alternate in the news cycle, typically one or two at a time as if in a loop. In July, Trump declared airstrikes on Iran, and Epstein was also in the news after Elon tweeted about it. Now the Iran conflict is on the backburner, replaced with Epstein and tariffs. After Trump kicks the can for another 90-day extension on the tariffs, Iran or Epstein will take center stage, and the process repeats.
The Iran-Israel truce will likely be broken eventually, as has been the pattern when either side ‘accidently’ launches a missile. In regard to Epstein, the typical modus operandi is to delay and give half-assed excuses, which has been an effective strategy at buying time even if many people are unconvinced.
Trump’s whole shtick is like the kid who keeps coming up with excuses for his homework being missing, or a student who keeps requesting extensions to finish his term paper for contrived reasons, like his grandma dying for the third time. This is not necessarily bad in the sense that delaying and compromising is how the game of high-stakes politics is played, and it has worked for him in the past. Too many people see the world in absolutes. Trump knows it does not work this way.
There are no trade deals. It’s just extensions and bluster. It’s the same smoke and mirrors where Trump threatens tariffs, and either does nothing or the final amount is much less than originally threatened. This because Trump knows that having the stock market fall on his watch is terrible optics. So he’s trying to signal to the base taking a hardline, but at the same time always backing down.
The doom loop is also symptomatic or demonstrative of the inability of Trump to do anything or establish control of the situation or narrative, but also the general intractability of those problems. None of those things has any sort of definite resolution. It’s not like the affected counties have any reason to aquacise to Trump’s demands when they can just wait for him to cave or accept a lower offer, as he has always done. Rather, similar to Trump’s first term, they will just eventually fade away as priorities shift.
For example, during Trump’s first term, the North Korea threat faded after Trump met with Kim Jong-Un during a summit, which was more of a photo op, but my theory is rather than diplomacy working, the North Korean leadership quietly pivoted to much more lucrative state-sponsored cryptocurrency theft against U.S. firms, which wouldn’t elicit as strong of retaliation by officials and is immune to sanctions or other measures. Trump’s first term tariffs also went away, likely overshadowed by Russiagate and impeachment proceedings in 2018-2019, which again in 2020 was superseded by Covid.
I predict Trump will back down on the tariffs for good come midterms or the 2028 election. From a strategic perspective, there is no need to subject the economy and the stock market to unnecessary gyrations, which plays into the hands of the left, during an election cycle.