It looks like I was right , here, here, and here, about no Bitcoin reserve. Trump instead signed an executive order for the ironically-titled “working group” to investigate the creation of a crypto stockpile that will arrive at a decision within 180 days:
To do this, Trump has set up a working group that will include the Secretary of the Treasury, Attorney General, and Secretary of Commerce. The group will, within 180 days, submit a report with regulatory and legislative proposals for the sector.
Among the specific areas to be looked into is the creation and maintenance of a national digital asset stockpile, possibly made up from cryptocurrency seized by the federal government.
So in short:
-It’s not a Bitcoin reserve, but rather a ‘crypto stockpile’, which is an obvious step-down from what supporters/donors originally wanted.
-It does not immediately halt the sale of Silk Road or other government-seized coins
What Trump could have done is issue an executive order to halt the sale of the Silk Road coins, sans reserve. This could have been legally tenable.
The expectation was for an executive order for a Bitcoin reserve signed on day one. This is neither. 180 days is an eternity and does not even guarantee anything will happen. I predict it will be delayed even further, or no decision, or rejection. So I was right.
It’s the same pattern: people yet again vastly overestimated how easy it would be to create the reserve. In the comments, people said it would be as simple as making a few transfers. “All he has to do is blah blah…” I argued it would not be that simple. When it comes to Trump or government in general, nothing is ever simple or easy. Everything is delay and dithering, unless it’s $500 billion for AI investment. Those who donate the most get the least. This proved my point.
Consequently, my Polymarket bets have so far paid off as the odds have plunged from 40% to 20%:
However, I was wrong about the Bitcoin tanking; at $104k it’s remarkably stable given this disappointment. But my Polymarket bets provided a win nonetheless, at least so far.
Related, in addition to Polymarket gains, the stock market also surged this week thanks to optimism over the Trump economy and the absence of tariffs. In particular, Meta stock made a new highs at over $640/share, so I profited a lot from that too. 2025 is shaping up to be very good indeed.