2025 predictions recap: my most accurate year ever

1905 is regarded as Albert Einstein’s so-called “Miracle Year” (Annus Mirabilis), in which he published four seminal papers that shaped the course of physics. (My own take is general relativity, which came later, is a more beautiful theory.) But anyway, 2025 was my equivalent miracle year. 2025 was one of my most profitable and productive years since I began tracking it. It couldn’t have gone better or my forecasts been more accurate. From last year: “2025 predictions, and recap of 2024”, I was right on pretty much all counts.

The interesting thing is, I was so accurate and profitable despite spending very little time and effort at it. I already had the roadmap drawn by late 2024 and early 2025, and the rest of the year tracked it perfectly. There was no need to spend hours analyzing scenarios, reading news, or developing complicated trading strategies. It’s not like I needed to spend a lot of time creating my trading systems or anything like that. All I did was place the necessary trades, like shorting Bitcoin or wagers on polymarket, and watched them profit.

This left me with tons of free lime, like for Twitter, watching YouTube, reading blogs, math research, writing and so on, and while profiting. It’s like the ‘post scarcity’ economy people talk about, where everyone will have unlimited free time to pursue their interests.

So to recap for 2025 I was right about:

1. No Bitcoin reserve (I made $ on polymarket from this, documented here). The Polymarket contract “US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?” is worthless, so I profited from this too, buying the “NO” contract.

Here is what I wrote:

I am very confident though Trump will give the ‘crypto people’ the cold shoulder. The ‘crypto reserve’ is DOA , assuming it gets put to a vote. Same for all the rollbacks of regulation or other reform. Bitcoin will probably crash to $60k when it becomes evident none of the stuff that was hoped for will come to fruition. Trump has a long history of overpromising and underdelivering. There’s no reason to think this has changed.

Aside from an unfunded ‘stockpile’, which is not a reserve, there has been no progress. Bitcoin will continue to fall as it becomes increasingly obvious that the Bitcoin reserve is never happening. Hence I remain short Bitcoin. Although Bitcoin didn’t crash to $60k, at $87k as of writing this, it has underperformed everything, just like I predicted:

Bitcoin is down 10% for the year versus QQQ up 20%. I was also the first to posit a link between Trump’s inaction and Bitcoin falling. This was at $110k. Everyone was expecting Trump to waste no time creating a Bitcoin reserve, but now total inaction or radio silence for the whole year.

Scott Bessent in August 2025 ruling out taxpayer-funded Bitcoin purchases was an obvious warning sign. This was at $118k; I warned everyone that it would get much worse. Now Bitcoin is at $87k. MSTR stock has done even worse, losing 60-70% of its value since then.

2. Stocks surging. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained 17% and 20% respectively for 2025.

Regarding AI, by investing in leveraged tech, I have that covered. Every trillion-dollar tech company is now effectively also an AI company. I don’t need to predict the winner when having diversified exposure means I will be invested regardless. The winner could be Tesla, or Meta, or Nvidia. Microsoft has exposure to Open Ai, having in 2023 acquired 50% of the startup. Instead of having to predict which one, I just split up my capital between them.

This was also true. Google stock was the putative ‘AI winner’ gaining 50% for the year on hype over Gemini. I was invested and profited accordingly. The AI arms race is showing no signs of slowing.

3. US economy booming. All the people who predicted Trump would ‘tank the economy and stock market’ were wrong again as always, just as they were wrong during his first term. The NYTs was forced to concede the anticipated post-tariffs inflation never came, and no recession either. See my tweet (and be sure to follow too):

4. I was among the first to predict Trump would backtrack, and profited accordingly by buying the dips in tech stocks. Upon seeing the strongly negative reaction by stocks and possible loss of support, Trump backtracked on his ‘liberation day’ tariffs, as I predicted. This led to the ‘TACO’ meme.

5. I correctly predicted de-escalation regarding the Iran-Israel conflict, which half a year later, things are still stable. Despite heavy criticism even from his own supporters, Trump was yet again vindicated. The airstrikes worked, whether you call it a ‘declaration of war’ or not. That is irrelevant and just semantics. The point is, Trump gambled with his credibility and won.

6. I correctly predicted the Epstein thing would be a dud and no closure. We were told there was a huge cover-up, and even when the redacted text was deciphered, nothing new came to light. Will all these people who predicted or were 100% certain Trump solicited underage sex, apologize or admit they were wrong? Of course not. Rather than digging in, if one were actually intellectually honest, this would call for a moment of reflection or introspection if your ‘model of society’ or human behavior is right.

This agrees with Richard Hanania (a rare win on his part) about the overuse of the label of pedophile. Similar to how the ‘left’ has expanded the definition of racism to include seemingly everything, a similar trend is seen here on the ‘right’ regarding what Hanania perceives as a moral panic over large age gaps in relationships.

7. I was right about no AI bubble. The liberal media was certain private AI company valuations would crash. Or that tech stocks with AI exposure would crash. Wrong again. These huge valuations are much more sustainable than commonly assumed, reflecting underlying economic changes and consumer and business demand. This forced the media to invent bogus narratives or excuses such as ‘circular deals’ or ‘circular financing’.

8. I was right about Elon musk becoming wealthier and his brand growing, defying predictions of bubble or a crash. He’s on track to be the world’s first trillionaire. Backing Trump in 2024 was a genius move on his part that paid off greatly through Tesla stock appreciation, Twitter/X, Grok, and Space-X. Even if DOGE doesn’t reduce spending much in the long term, it’s highly popular among Trump’s base. Trump’s successor, presumably Vance, can cite specific cuts or reduced waste, even if they are tiny relative to overall spending, as ‘wins’.

9. Another school mass shooting. I wrote:

There will be another major school shooting. Unlike the in the past, these shootings do not get as much media attention or lead to the long debates about gun rights like they did in the 2010s. Probably people have become inured to it. The media also figured out that giving these shooters the attention they sought, only incentivizes further shootings.

For 2025, the mass shooting occurred at Brown University, claiming two lives and then this was followed by a third victim, an MIT professor, who was slain at his home. I remember in the early to mid 2000s when mass shootings would lead to weeks-long ‘conversations’ about gun rights or non-stop media coverage, but now people are quick to move on.

10. I was right about things not becoming more affordable. People hoping for more affordable homes or otherwise lower living expenses will have to look elsewhere. Not gonna happen. It won’t hurt Trump approval ratings much either or his 2028 successor. The best hedge against inflation is still stocks or real estate, not crypto. The implicit messaging by Trump’s perceived indifference or inaction in response to rising living expenses, is that your only options are to buy stocks to hedge or earn more money.

So that is a wrap.