Is cost of living down?
— Cernovich (@Cernovich) November 11, 2025
I’m seeing a lot of blackpilling about Trump. It’s premature for people to blackpill so early into his term, especially when things are going well. I give him an “B+” so far. He’s doing what I expected, save for the tariffs, which I think were an unforced error, but not that big of a deal either; otherwise he would earn an “A”.
A year into his second term and ‘the left’ are in retreat culturally, stocks are surging, the U.S. economy is humming along, there is Middle East stability, etc. It’s hard to find much ground to criticize Trump on. Everything I said would happen, is happening:
3. Inflation will go up or remain high despite tariffs or other promises. Investors will make money nonetheless, which is why I remain invested. A 5% year-over-year gain of CPI is immaterial compared to 25-30% annual returns for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, which is what I am predicting for the next 4 years under Trump.
I was right about Trump cozying up to tech, as we see with AI and Apple. I was right about no progress on Bitcoin reserve. When I am grading Trump, it’s based on my expectations, not my aspirations of more improbable things, like “defeating DEI” (whatever that entails).
As Cernovich notes, living expenses predictably are rising, but I never expected Trump to solve that. This is why I have been saying forever to buy stocks, gold, and real estate to hedge, NOT crypto. From the above post:
3. Inflation will go up or remain high despite tariffs or other promises. Investors will make money nonetheless, which is why I remain invested. A 5% year-over-year gain of CPI is immaterial compared to 25-30% annual returns for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, which is what I am predicting for the next 4 years under Trump.
True, not everyone can afford to hedge with stocks or real estate, but this is orthogonal to Trump. It would be the same or worse under Kamala. The only thing that can make things more affordable broadly speaking is if there is a recession. The power of policy to make prices fall is very limited given the relentless unyielding undercurrent of inflation, and how scarcity drives up prices as seen in real estate. Deporting millions of illegals will not change this when the scarcity is driven by high-income people in these expensive areas.
People who are surprised or mad at Trump for his apparent disregard for inflation, do NOT understand Trump of GOP politics in general, which is a surprise given that these people have built careers on punditry, yet get the fundamentals wrong. If the criticism of Trump is that he cannot meet your unreasonably high expectations, then this is more of an argument against democracy than an indictment of Trump.
(Actually it’s unsurprising given that follower counts and brand size tend to inversely proportional to accuracy or usefulness of said advice, which I also noted.)
Here is what I wrote in January 2024, which couldn’t be more prescient:
Trump was much more concerned about the stock market than about inflation, tweeting about the new highs for the market constantly during his first term. He’s not going to sacrifice points of the DJIA or percentages of GDP to make groceries more affordable, sorry.
It was all in plain sight. If you’re surprised at all by this, then you weren’t paying attention. You were projecting your own desires on to Trump instead of taking him at face value. People who in early 2025 sold their crypto and bought tech stocks did well, or who bought stocks in general to hedge inflation, also did well.