I saw this going viral “Humanity will shrink, far sooner than you think.” Although the issue is often described in alarmist language, the evidence shows that population decline remains very gradual. Japan, the posterchild of low fertility, has only seen its population fall a tiny bit since peaking, from 127 million in 2000 to presently 124 million. Even more remarkable, this is in spite of minimal immigration. Japan’s fertility rate first went sub-replacement in 1975, only for its population to finally peak 25 years later. Not until 40-50 years has elapsed does a 1.5-1.75 fertility rate rate lead to a maybe a 2-3% population decline from the peak. This does not sound too serious, and leaves plenty of time for solutions. This can be increased economic productivity or financial incentives to have children.
Moreover, I’ve argued that concerns over world depopulation are manufactured by business elites and promoted with the help of the media, in order to promote immigration. This can be likened to so-called ‘social arbitrage’. Large companies reap the top-line growth of having more consumers, but citizens/ taxpayers foot the bill by paying for social programs, more crime, and other side effects of over overcrowding, whereas those elites are protected from the downside by having superior private alternatives, such as private schools and private security. Everyone else gets crowded emergency rooms, congested roads, pothole streets, unsafe neighborhoods, bad schools and so on. This is because often there is a huge lag time between population growth and the creation of the infrastructure to support it.
In case it wasn’t obvious, unlike China, America is not exactly good at building things, such as housing or roads. Whether this is due to overregulation or inertia–it just is. Everyone seems to agree there is a housing crisis, but just like 13 years ago, the political will to do anything about it is absent. America’s specialty is keeping old people alive for a really long time. This requires a constant infusion of young people at the bottom to keep the system from collapsing under its weight, which diverts resources from more productive things, like building more homes or infrastructure. Hence, chronic shortages everywhere, which is great if you locked in a home already, but not so great if you’re looking. Thus, accusations of ‘pulling up the ladder’ that is often leveled at older generations and deservedly so.
Even if one makes an argument that immigrants are a net economic gain, the infrastructure still lags and overcrowding. This may mean more taxes, but no one wants to pay for it.