Item #1. Trump announces 90-day pause on tariffs; stocks surge.
It looks like I was right to buy the dip, having done so Monday morning on FNGA. Here is what I said: “I have begun buying leveraged tech stocks on the dip this morning to take advantage of this great overreaction. My favorite: FNGA.”
I am up considerably on this position, plus up a lot on Bitcoin short positions. So overall, my P&L is close to record highs, on top of 100% gains of ‘net worth’ in 2024 (when all my accounts are added together, such as the crypto shorting accounts , the stock accounts, cash, etc.).
Trump cares about being liked. He saw he was losing billionaire/tech support, such as Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen and Bill Ackman by digging into the tariffs, so he blinked. As I wrote in that same post, “But there is still plenty of time for Trump to backpedal. Trump cares about being popular. If he can sense the party turning against him, he will pivot.”
China is a notable exception to the pause. It remains to be seen how this will affect consumers and companies in the coming days. How much will prices go up? Will consumers keep spending? How will companies respond?
Item #2 He’s right:
The almighty American consumer isn't a magical constant. He exists due to very high US productivity, which loads on its unique confluence of human capital, deep capital pools, institutions & economies of scale. Nullify that – well, the world doesn't end, but you become Europoors.
— Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯 (@powerfultakes) April 9, 2025
Agree. As I wrote in that post, regardless of the outcome, similar to 2008, 2020, or 2022, whenever there is crisis, the US always comes out ahead compared to the rest of the world. The only possible exception was from 2002-2008 when foreign stocks outperformed US equities post-9/11. America is a magnet for high IQ talent, with the perfect financial and educational incentives, regardless of what is going on Washington. Big tech companies, huge consumer spending, tons of R&D.
Item #3 Oof…
Why couldn't trump have done an awesome insane thing like ban all income tax instead
— Aella (@Aella_Girl) April 9, 2025
When people wonder “What is the point of learning civics or the humanities when I am not going to use it (in the context of a career setting)?” This is why. To help avoid those foot-in-mouth moments that comes with being uninformed of the basics. As many noted in the comments, this would require the approval of Congress.
Item #4 “Lies, liars, and charts…”
Trump's tariff shock caused the market to regress to the absurd low level of… April 2024 pic.twitter.com/wwzIdzc89l
— Emil Kirkegaard (@KirkegaardEmil) April 8, 2025
I have seen this chart floating around Twitter/X to downplay the extent of the market selling. It’s too bad to see him committing the same sort of logical misconstructions that the left does regarding IQ when it suits their agenda.
This is fallacious for many reasons: The DJIA is a price-weighted index composed of only 30 stocks. The stocks chosen for the DJIA tend to be large, defensive-type sectors that tend to hold up better during market volatility. The S&P 500 or Nasdaq, which are are much more diversified, is a better benchmark.
As shown above, the recent selling is comparable to 2020 or 2022 in terms of price decline and (and almost the same percentage decline), and at one point erased 1-1.5 years of gains.