Day 2: $500 billion AI investment, Ross Ulbricht pardoned, and stocks up again–thanks to huge Oracle and Netflix earnings and optimism over Trump economy. Everything is going exactly as I said it would. Everyone getting wins, but people who wanted Bitcoin reserve, who left empty-handed despite donating the most. That is the irony of it.
AFIK, I was the only one to get everything right, correctly predicting no reserve but also predicting that stocks would surge under Trump despite fears of tariffs. Such fears so far proved unfounded. I do have skin in the game in that if Trump somehow actually moves forward on the reserve my Polymarket bets will be worthless, in addition to other losses.
It’s exactly like in 2017 when the media similarly predicted recession and crisis, only instead for the stock market and economy to boom even with tariffs. I was also right about TikTok not being banned (it was down for a few hours last week, but that does not count as a formal ban).
Moreover, I predict far fewer deportations than expected. It’s also the same as in 2017 when everyone overestimated what Trump would do compared to what he was actually capable of doing, which was not that much. Also, Elon and others in his inner circle are strongly pro-immigration.
The fact that pardons have played such a major role in both the Biden and Trump administrations, like regarding Jan 6th protesters or Ross William Ulbricht’s pardon, if anything, is a way to attenuate the overreach of prosecutors and the FBI. When the likes of Curtis Yarvin or others ask “Who has power?” or pontificate about power, such power clearly lies in the hands of 3-letter agencies and the judiciary. By comparison, in less developed countries or other developed nations, the equivalent of such agencies (e.g. interpol) have far less power or industrialists or politicians have more power (e.g. for bribes).
Regarding the $500 billion Ai initiative, why would Trump pledge so much to the very people who a year or earlier despised him, campaigned against him, or in the case of Facebook censored his supporters? Trump is attracted to power, either sucking up to those who have it or trying to procure it, which is why he ‘s trying to win over Zuckerberg and Sam Altman and respects them, but snubs the crypto people, who have less power, although he’ll gladly take their money.
It’s not about partisan politics but rather about power. Trump knows, correctly, that crypto is a curiosity, not an economic necessity, unlike AI. Same for TikToK. Millions of people rely on TikTok for business or entertainment, so it temporarily going down for a few hours was a huge deal that necessitated urgent action. By comparison, if crypto went away, hardly anyone would notice or care.
To get so many things right is further evidence of being one of the best forecaster alive or ever, or at least in the top 5 or so. All of this hubris is backed by evidence; I would not claim to be the best or good at something unless I had reason to believe it is true. I don’t go around claiming to be a great writer or a great mathematician, because either of those is unsupported by the evidence.
Speaking of which, I saw this going viral: Where Do Those Undergraduate Divisibility Problems Come From?
The author presents an interesting exercise: prove that \(p(n)=n^6+n^3+2n^2+2n\) is a multiple of 6 for all n (presumably a positive integer n).
I am not sure why this needs such a long-winded explanation. I suppose the author is trying to instill mathematics formalism. To show it’s always divisible by 2, or p(n) mod 2 = 0 for all real integer n>0, write the polynomial as: \(n^3(n^3+1)+2n(n+1)\).
When n is even, it’s self-evidently true. When n takes the form 2k+1, then we see that the n^3+1 and n+1 parts in the parenthesis must be even, so it’s divisible by 2.
Next is to prove it’s always divisible by 3. If n takes the form of 3k then this is trivially verifiable. The other two possibilities are \(n=3k+1\) and \(n=3k+2\). Plugging 3k+1 into the polynomial we only need to consider the last term of the expansion \((3k+1)^6\), which is 1. And repeat for the rest. The sum is 6, so divisible. Then do the same procedure for n=3k+2. We have: 2^6+2^3+2*2^2+2*2^1 =84, which is also divisible by 3. So proved.