The big story is no Bitcoin reserve, or any executive order regarding crypto for that matter. Although of course there is always the possibility it happens later, it does not look good given that Trump signed a bunch of other executive orders, but ignored the one thing his donors had expected and hoped for. No mention of Bitcoin during any of his speeches either. All he had to do was just mention it somewhere without signing anything, not nothing.
A lot of people are surprised by this, and the media is also reporting Trump’s apparent about-face on the crypto reserve. I am not surprised given I predicted it and profited from it.
I remember debating this a month ago, and everyone–either on the pro-Bitcoin or anti-Bitcoin side–was certain the reserve would be signed on day one. I was the lone exception who said it would not happen. Trump would either forget or ignore it. You can give Trump a winning Mega Millions ticket and he would either forget to cash it or lose it. That is just how it it when it comes to Trump. Trump the businessman is not at all like Trump the politician.
When it comes to Trump, the only person who gets rich is Trump and his family. Donors and advisors are always left empty-handed. Same pattern as in 2016-2018. It does not take a high IQ to see the same thing replaying now as it did last time. Trump and his wife over the weekend launched a pair of ‘shitcoins’, earning the pair billions and in the process diluting exiting cryptocurrencies and making existing holders poorer.
Save for Scott Adams and a few others, none of Trump’s 2016-2017 or 2020 backers supported or campaigned for Trump during his reelection. You go down the list of all the big names during his first term who either worked, supported, or campaigned for him–Ann Coulter, Alex Jones, Peter Thiel, Scaramucci, Bannon, etc.–they either had a falling-out, quit early on, were mired in scandal, or moved on. None of them actively companied for Trump in 2024.
For this time around, the ‘tech people’, ‘crypto people’, and ‘MMA people’ are behind Trump. The tech people will be repaid in the form of lower taxes and less regulation. The MMA folks don’t care either way and just think Trump is cool and are not expecting any favors. But the crypto people will be left empty-handed.
Trump’s value is in his judicial appointments, foreign policy (such as not going to war and deterrence of adversaries), cutting taxes, and being a counterweight to the left on a political and cultural level. Expecting favors is the wrong way of looking at it. You will not get any. Elon knows this as well; his support of Trump is unconditional.