I am rolling some of my Bitcoin short profits today into additional “NO” contracts at 30-34 cents on Polymarket for Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? A 30% return in 3 months works out to an effective 190% annual return.
The fact Trump did not mention Bitcoin or crypto anywhere in a Jan 5th tweet of ‘action items’ does not portend well for the Bitcoin reserve.
Members of Congress are getting to work on one powerful Bill that will bring our Country back, and make it greater than ever before. We must Secure our Border, Unleash American Energy, and Renew the Trump Tax Cuts, which were the largest in History, but we will make it even…
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 6, 2025
The full tweet:
Members of Congress are getting to work on one powerful Bill that will bring our Country back, and make it greater than ever before. We must Secure our Border, Unleash American Energy, and Renew the Trump Tax Cuts, which were the largest in History, but we will make it even better – NO TAX ON TIPS. IT WILL ALL BE MADE UP WITH TARIFFS, AND MUCH MORE, FROM COUNTRIES THAT HAVE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE U.S. FOR YEARS. Republicans must unite, and quickly deliver these Historic Victories for the American People. Get smart, tough, and send the Bill to my desk to sign as soon as possible. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!
Note how he lists many items, but no mention crypto or bitcoin anywhere. The last time Trump mentioned Bitcoin or Crypto was October 31, 2024.
The “NO TAX ON TIPS” part is in caps lock. This benefits the lowest of income earners–primarily, restaurant workers. How much $ did they donate to Trump’s campaign? Or what percentage of them voted for Trump compared to wealthier business owners? Exactly, yet they get priority. Despite showering Trump with crash and support, the crypto donors have to wait at the back of the line, assuming they get anything.
Yet again I was right. The notion that wealth and influence allows one to cut to the front of the line in terms of policy or can buy off politicians is a common misconception or wildly overestimated. Here we see the opposite in which a constituency who contributed nothing and as a whole are not Republican voters are prioritized and singled-out in caps lock.
In a democracy, in which everyone gets a single vote, ‘crypto donors’ are far outnumbered by service workers, so even if the latter overwhelmingly vote Democratic, there are still more potential voters by winning over a small fraction of them. Trump is smart enough to know that after winning, it’s no longer a money game but a numbers game. Once you get the money from the donors, then you focus on getting more future voters. Of course, donors can wise-up and realize they are consistently being left empty-handed, but there is always a shot, so they keep playing.
It’s not so much that Trump always dismisses his donors–he holds big tech in high esteem, such as Zuckerberg, Tim Cook, Andreessen, Musk etc.–but not crypto. Again, this goes back to power. Right now, big tech has the most power, whereas crypto has much less. This was the same in 2016-2017. The reformers and outsiders who were appointed for advisory roles where sidelined. Crypto will be no different.