Month: September 2024

Last week NYC major Eric Adams was indicted on five federal charges, including bribery, fraud and soliciting illegal foreign campaign donations. This is quite serious and the first in New York history. And earlier this year, Democratic Senator Bob Menendez was found guilty on all counts in a bribery trial. So here we have two… Continue reading Trump Still Free as Democratic Elites Fall

I saw this tweet by Nassim Taleb: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESSMy conjecture, expressed on X, that pple w/news in advance don't do well has been tested by Haghani et al. Indeed they failed to really capitalize on information 1) you don't know beforehand what is noise, & 2) overestimate the information (sizing) pic.twitter.com/6pcwrrVOgf — Nassim Nicholas… Continue reading When a Crystal Ball Isn’t Enough to Make You Rich

Time for another Daily View round-up. Haven’t done one of these in a while. Item #1: Bitcoin due for crash as old holders, miners sell: This is so obvious that I have increased my position against it, whilst still long leveraged tech, so I will make money either way from the tech stocks rising and… Continue reading The Daily View 9/26/2024: Trump, Meta, McDonald’s, 2024 Election

Zvi’s2-part review of Nate Silver’s new book On the Edge. Book Review: On the Edge: The Fundamentals Book Review: On the Edge: The Gamblers The reviews are so long, I may as well just read the book. The river vs. village concept seems like repackaging of left vs right, or libertarian vs. left/right, or risk… Continue reading Nate Silver On the Edge: Risk Takers , Getting Rich, and Poker

I saw this Ozempic ‘Very Likely’ to Face Drug Price Negotiations, Novo Says: “It is very likely that Ozempic will be part of negotiations in the coming round, and we’re ready for that,” Ulrich Otte, senior vice president of finance & operations for Novo Nordisk, said Tuesday at Cantor Global Healthcare Conference in New York.… Continue reading ‘Universal Ozempic’ would bankrupt America’s healthcare system for little benefit

Interesting exchange by @tracewoodgrains with @IanMalcolm84 Do you care about understanding intelligence? Then when a white supremacist posts nonsensical slop he doesn't even understand, don't nod along just because he frames it as an "uncomfortable truth." 17k likes for claiming Asians peak around 125 IQ based on a hypothetical chart.… https://t.co/7WElU4vYl1 pic.twitter.com/Gq79LpgIhC — TracingWoodgrains (@tracewoodgrains)… Continue reading IQ skepticism: debate and objections

College and high school students have turned to AI software such as ChatGPT to automate and expedite the often tedious process of writing essays. This naturally poses a major problem for teachers, and has led to a cat-and-mouse game between increasingly advanced content-generation software and efforts to detect automated content. Here are some solutions I… Continue reading AI and preventing cheating in the classroom setting

For all its vaunted capabilities when it comes to contemplating hypotheticals or abstractions high-IQ doesn't seem to enable individuals to understand the lives of those who are lower on the distribution High-IQ individuals have a very hard time developing a theory of mind for… — Auron MacIntyre (@AuronMacintyre) September 12, 2024 I am sure this… Continue reading The myth of Democratic disunity

A lot of social policy is conceived on the erroneous assumption that the unintelligent or average-IQ masses can easily modify their behavior or make rational choices: Agree. I've been preaching for years about 'cognitive oppression' — the tendency of high-IQ elites to order civilization in ways that are extremely confusing & overwhelming for lower-IQ people… Continue reading The quadrant of responsibility: individual vs. collective

Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy Purchased 18.3K More Bitcoins for $1.1B: The new purchases was made at an average price of $60,408 per token, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said in an X post on Friday morning, boosting the company’s holdings to 244,800 BTC. MicroStrategy’s cost basis for those holdings is $9.45 billion, or an average price of… Continue reading Michael Saylor’s Big Bitcoin Purchase