Month: June 2024

Election years are bullish for stocks, with few exceptions like 2008: If Trump wins–which the evidence suggests he will given Biden’s sub-40% approval rating, which is unusually bad for a Democratic incumbent–expect tons of stimulus, even more tax cuts, and deregulation. All of this is good for stocks. In 2016 stocks surged immediately after Trump… Continue reading Election Years are Bullish for Stocks, Wall St. Optimistic About Trump Win

Will Debt Sink the American Empire? After growing for decades, this year the U.S. debt will roughly match its GDP. Throughout history, nations that blithely piled up their obligations have eventually met unhappy ends. To answer the title, it will not. Every year the debt doomsayers sound the same warnings about the ‘inevitable’ or awaited… Continue reading There won’t be a debt crisis. Things will continue as always.

This week is Juneteenth. The creation of these ad-hoc holidays is part of the transition to a post-scarcity or post-work society. As AI becomes increasingly advanced, increased joblessness should lead to the creation of additional such holidays. How The Economist’s presidential forecast works 2024 is going to be very close and decided by key swing… Continue reading The daily view 6/21/2024 Presidential Debate, Presidential Forecasting, Race Realism

Great article by Mr. 187 IQ again: The Back Row Versus The Front Row The back row can have a nice life and many of its members do achieve the American Dream. But they don’t have real power–the front row does, and that naturally makes the back row mad. He almost gets it. No one… Continue reading The Back Row Versus The Front Row

Bitcoin keeps sucking. Now the financial media is realizing what I knew and predicted all along: Bitcoin is severely lagging big tech and is inferior as an investment overall. Some recent headlines about the failure of Bitcoin to particulate in the tech surge (gee…I wonder whose blog said this would happen?): First Mover: Bitcoin Struggles… Continue reading Bitcoin Keeps Falling as Stocks Surge: Right Again

This is an especially well-written profile of Ibram Kendi, by Freddie deBoer. Freddie’s prose is among the top 3 or so, followed by Adam Mastroianni of Experimental History. Here are some passages that stood out that showcase his style: The thing is… this is kind of how the ideas industry functions in general, these days.… Continue reading Freddie deBoer on Ibram Kendi

I saw this going viral: One reason why Costco is so popular among working and lower middle class, especially families and the elderly. The membership program turns the store into a sanctuary from miscreants: pic.twitter.com/nrEztyPWI3 — Rob Henderson (@robkhenderson) June 13, 2024 Or maybe it’s popular because it’s a good value, provided you don’t mind… Continue reading Why is Costco so Popular?

I don’t understand how someone who believes in HBD in so far as educational attainment or crime are concerned, it does not apply to obesity too. What is possibly more biological than how the body processes or partitions nutrients (e.g. into energy or fat?), or individual preferences for food: The least obese states are where… Continue reading Blaming Obesity on Low IQs

From Rob K. Henderson: Why Young Women Are Becoming More Liberal Than Young Men: The Gender-Equality Paradox. Students are more liberal at higher ranked schools (vs. lower ranked schools) The higher up the college rankings you go, the larger the political gender divide gets I keep seeing this repeated as if it’s a truism. I… Continue reading Skepticism that high-ranking colleges are more woke

Bitcoin crash continues, down $3k overnight. Yeah, I know I sound like a broken record. This is the 4th or so time it has ‘crashed’ over the past 3 months, but it’s not a matter of ‘if’ it goes $20k, but when. Looking at the chart, it’s evident that this is a replay of 2022.… Continue reading $20k Bitcoin Target Coming Up