Month: November 2022

Banning Trump after Jan 6 is entirely compatible with the foundations of democracy, even necessary. By the Gödel-Popper rule, a democracy should never give its tools to those who want to thwart it. — Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) November 29, 2022 Except this is not what happened. After election night, the Trump campaign availed itself… Continue reading The daily view: Jan 6th, Trump, Musk vs. Twitter

This is an excellent video which explains why healthcare costs have gone up so much (starting at 12:00). I agree that the blame cannot be placed squarely on regulation. There are many factors at play: Record high corporate profits and personal income means more money to spend on healthcare. US per-capita personal income has surged… Continue reading Why Americans Spend So Much On Healthcare

From Scott’s blog Semaglutidonomics 140 million obese Americans x $15,000/year for obesity drugs = . . . uh oh, that can’t be right. I don’t think anything short of drastic medical intervention, such as Semaglutide, or a major disruption of society (e.g societal collapse or famine) can put a dent in the worldwide obesity/overweight epidemic.… Continue reading The obesity epidemic: genes and drugs

1. 2022 hasn’t been that great for some of my forecasts, but I got two major ones right: Bitcoin crashes (along with Ethereum, MicroStrategy and other) and Elon Musk’s brand/fame grows even more. 2020-2021 were already huge years for Elon, such as increased media coverage and support by opposing lockdowns, but his brand grew to… Continue reading 2022: Recap: Elon Musk, Twitter, FTX, and the decline of the left-wing cultural hegemony

Not a single bounce after falling $4k in a week: No bottom in sight. It’s over…the rats are jumping ship now. Just as I predicted in 2021 would happen. That’s why I’m still one of the smartest forecasters alive. It goes to show how nobodies such as myself and a few others are always right,… Continue reading The crypto crash continues

I think the epidemic of irreproducibility as it pertains to the social sciences and success stories is way bigger than imagined. The survivorship bias is huge. It’s like you’re presented with what you are told is a blueprint (e.g., ‘grit’, ‘10,000 hours’, ‘mindfulness’, ‘growth mindset’, etc.) for success, persuasiveness, or anything else socially desired. What… Continue reading Why Bad Social Science Research Endures

Last night Trump gave a major speech announcing his 2024 run. I am more convinced than ever he will win. At one point his speech was viewed by over 100,000 people concurrently across multiple YouTube channels. Biden cannot pull those kind of numbers. All Trump has to do to win is blame his opponent for… Continue reading Trump 2024

Gad Saad’s weight loss story shows why the obesity epidemic is possibly hopeless, or at least worse than I originally thought (from the Joe Rogan podcast): Although he succeeded at losing 86 pounds (at a peak and 256 pounds, and a present weight of 170 pounds), in order to achieve this he had to: 1.… Continue reading Why the obesity epidemic may not be solvable

Right again: FTX declared bankruptcy a day after I said it would. Its CEO Scam Blankman-Fried stepped down, to pursue new scams I suppose. Apparently his family also has close ties with Biden…go figure. This did not come as a surprise. Its business was unsalvageable and worthless, given that all its customers who hadn’t had… Continue reading FTX Bankruptcy

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are down 15-30% this week, vs the Nasdaq being up 3%. As far as predicting goes, this is right on the nose. You could not have asked for a more accurate forecast. The Nasdaq was up 7% today, it’s best one-day gain in over a decade, and the S&P 500 was… Continue reading Stocks Still Better Than Bitcoin, and Record-high Twitter Traffic Under Musk