Month: October 2022

It would seem like every measure of societal well-being has gotten worse since 2020: Increased healthcare costs Increased chronic illness Increased mental illness Increased crime Increased national unrest Worker shortages Stunted learning/development Supply shortages Inflation Global global unrest (Ukraine vs. Russia) None of these these things are going to get better. The healthcare burden and… Continue reading The National Sickness

I saw this No, the USA Is Not Headed Towards Civil War See that red rectangle? That belongs to the anti-systemic left who are firmly entrenched in many of the USA’s leading universities, who are not particularly loyal to the constitutional republic, and are more than happy to see it end to serve their own… Continue reading Expect more political and cultural division in the US, but not civil war

Over the past few years that has been considerable hype over tail-hedging funds, most notably Universa, which made headlines everywhere after it booked a 3,000-4,000% return in 2020: A ‘Black Swan’ fund posted a massive 4,000% return after the coronavirus blew up markets Nassim Taleb-Advised Universa Tail Fund Returned 3,600% in March Investor who returned… Continue reading Tail Hedging Strategies Are Struggling During the 2022 Bear Market

Responding to the Richard Hanania essay about Fukuyama, I think Freddie is somewhat nitpicking. The heuristic that trends can last last a long time, longer than most people anticipate/expect, is a useful one. It’s not about having a chauvinistic view of one’s place in history or something to be taken literally, but more about a… Continue reading History Changes, But Trends Can Last a Long Time, Too

Came across this excellent article: “The Year of Fukuyama: American Triumphalism and “Normie Theories of Democracy” It’s interesting how relevant and debated Fukuyama still is. If not for that 1992 book, how many people would still care about him (although the same could be said for almost any famous public intellectual or author, as most… Continue reading Fukuyama Still Endures

Bitcoin poised to fall much lower: Note above how none of the smoothness and concavity conditions are in place for Bitcoin to go higher. This means it has not stopped falling. The orange circles show a smooth, compressed, concave price behavior, but the blue circle is the opposite of that, being jagged , convex, with… Continue reading Markets Update: Foreign Currencies Crash, Bitcoin Poised to Fall Further

I came upon this article modern malaise: a theory. In the 80s Thatcher and Reagan broke down trade barriers and ceded government power to banks and corporations. This created a consumer world driven by debt, where everything was assessed by utility. Politics essentially “became a wing of management, saying that it could stop bad things… Continue reading The State of America