Month: August 2022

I have been thinking about the differences between liberalism and conservatism in America. One might be thinking, “Isn’t this obvious, or already discussed to death,” but I think it merits further examination. I liken liberalism to an ever-expanding circle or frontier. So when people complain that ‘liberalism is going to far,’ I’m like ‘liberalism is… Continue reading Conservatism vs. Liberalism: The Circle

This is stupid but kinda funny From the experience of old private bankers (and my own), pple who want to look rich on media [cars…] aren't usually rich. As suspected, Andrew Tate [whom I just discovered] may be >one order of magnitude less rich. Small detail: his "private plane" is rented frm Luxaaviation. — Nassim… Continue reading Taleb vs. Andrew Tate

This is a huge story. My take is somewhat different…I think a case can be made that it amounts to a bribe, but the fact that people are so angry about it and are likening it to a bribe, speaks to its effectiveness. The total bill amounts to $250 billion, but given that student loans… Continue reading Biden Student Loan Forgiveness; It’s not about the money, but rather the perceived favoritism

I saw this Freddie deBoer article going viral: If Everyone Learns to Code, the Value of Knowing How to Code Will Be Destroyed. I knew that by writing about computer science and econ he was going into unchartered territory, compared to education policy or politics, and it shows. The inevitable impact will be a tougher… Continue reading Freddie deBoer is wrong about STEM jobs

One thing that stands out, to me at least, when listening to podcasts or popular YouTube channels, whether it’s Jocko, Rogan, Breaking Points, etc. is that the hosts are not particularly smart. They are competent perhaps at their professions, yes, but not that smart. I have observed this for almost all niches (e.g., business, finance,… Continue reading The IQ cliff and the lottery of success: Substack vs. YouTube

I saw this post going massively viral a few days ago: Nobody Wants to Teach Anymore: Everyone should know why. This article is entirely devoid of any stats…as I was reading I was waiting for the author to cite some actual data showing how underpaid teachers are, and nothing. It is just a huge rant.… Continue reading Teachers are likely not underpaid, and do not have it worse than other professions

Two weeks ago (and earlier) I said that as the stock market recovers, Bitcoin & Arkk will lag Tesla and 3x tech ETFs TECL and TQQQ considerably. So far it’s playing out exactly as I said it would. Bitcoin crashed 8% on Friday despite the Nasdaq only being down 2%. Arkk and Bitcoin are lagging… Continue reading Bitcoin vs. 3x Funds (the winner is 3x funds), Predictions, AI Risk, and Rationality

My IQ piece: exams do not measure knowledge and abilities v. well; exams are extremely good at measuring the ability to take exams. But avoid the denying the antecedent fallacy: being good at exams doesn't mean you aren't good at being Fat Tony. Best test: are you rich at 35? https://t.co/wRWDVt2oAu — Nassim Nicholas Taleb… Continue reading Nassim Taleb keeps being wrong about IQ

Saw this The Lumpenbourgeoisie: The price we pay for elite overproduction. His argument is that elite overproduction means that college grads with useless/unmarketable degrees are increasingly finding themselves unemployed, hence possibly precipitating the long-awaited collapse of the student loan/higher-ed bubble. He writes: But that reality is, on the one hand, more complicated than it appears,… Continue reading Elite overproduction does not threaten college advantage

Digital content creators, whether it’s YouTube, Podcasts, Substack, or Twitter, are making record money with ads, product placement, consulting, and subscriptions, and this trend has accelerated after Covid, as individuals and companies find themselves with an abundance of free time, profits, and disposable income. From a 2021 Fortune article, “…last year, YouTube’s ad revenue grew… Continue reading The booming digital content creator economy