The 2020 Real Clear Politics Democratic nominee odds confirm what I have suspected for awhile: that political predictions are worthless:
Having been wrong about Trump being impeached, I have stopped making political predictions/forecasts in regard things in which there is voting involved. It’s easy to forecast a general trend, but much harder to forecast discrete events such as election or primary results. In all my time reading and following pundits, I have yet to find anyone who has any skill at it. I remember in 2018-2019 many bloggers and pundits were certain Biden would be the nominee. At the time he seemed like the most electable and ‘normal’ candidate, and, like Gore and Bush, was the VP of a two-term president, compared to senile Sanders, dingbat Warren, or the gay guy with unpronounceable last name. But then, as shown above, due to a combination of bad debate performances and abysmal placings in primaries, Biden’s odds have plunged and he is no longer a frontrunner. Meanwhile, Buttigieg went from polling in the single-digits in late 2019 to now attaining front-runner status. I was sure that he would have a similar fate as Yang, dropping out by now. Buttigieg was playing the long game, polling poorly early on but relying on his establishment credentials and high intelligence to carry him through, waiting for Warren and Biden to flame out when their ineptitude and kookiness became obvious, which is has. Sanders, who is so old that his only book is a first edition of Das Kapical purchased from Marx himself, is somehow winning despite having so many factors working against him: his advanced age, being Jewish, the mainstream media and DNC working against him, and being ‘too extreme’ to attract moderates. And then there is Bloomberg. Given how late he started and thus missing out on the early debates, I was sure he was doomed, but in hindsight through a combination of blanket media coverage, political savvy, wealth, and name recognition, has surged and is now the third and final front-runner, along with Sanders and Buttigieg, displacing Warren and Biden. Bloomberg is possibly the smartest and most competent candidate. He’s like the liberal counterpart to Trump, who like Trump, is very pro-Israel, from New York, outspoken, a businessman, and wealthy. These factors work to Bloomberg’s advantage the longer the primaries go on, because the longer it goes on, the greater the odds Sanders will suffer a similar fate as Biden or Warren.