Incentives matter

Incentives matter. Why is the Euro banknote the most commonly forged currency? Because it’s easy to forge? No, because the consequences are much more lenient compared to forging US bank notes. You forge US banknotes and the secret service will surround you; for euros and…

Is there a case for the humanities?

Saw this article going viral There Is No Case for the Humanities Among the tech-smart, there is a sort of cognitive dissonance of both supporting technology in so far as promoting progress and well-being (such as reducing global starvation and infant mortality), but also nostalgia…

Revising some views about IQ

I like to think that I am right most of the time, but I have to amend some of my earlier views of IQ as it pertains to success at life. In the past I put IQ above other factors, but now I think IQ…

How I Understand Stocks and Economics

The S&P 500 keeps making new highs. It can easily post another 20% gains for 2020. When I say that I am one of the greatest financial forecasters and stock pickers ever, it’s not hyperbole , but backed by data. For example, was right about…

Escalation against Iran good for Trump, stock market

War or not, there is going to be more defense build-up as a consequence of Soleimani’s assassination, which is good for defense stocks. From a 2020 strategic standpoint, assassinating Soleimani works in Trump’s favor because it boosts patriotism and nationalism among his boomer/gen-x base. On…

Getting Sunk Costs Wrong

A 2009 article from Seth Godin’s blog recently went viral, Ignore Sunk Costs. A sunk cost in the context of the sunk cost fallacy implies a certain amount of uncertainty of ever recovering the initial investment. Misspelling a sign is a mistake that needs to…

3x Leveraged ETF Strategy Guide, Updated for 2020, Part 1: Intro

In 2016 I published my 5-part wealth creation guide about how to beat the S&P 500 by shoring leveraged inverse ETFs. Since publication, the method has worked very well, especially in 2019 when bonds and stocks surged together, but it is also complicated and difficult…

Some thoughts on Iran

Some take-aways: 1. No one has any idea what is going to happen, and anyone who claims to have some sort of special foresight as to the matter is probably full of it. Unlike economies and finance, predicting foreign policy is very difficult, if not…

Why the job-apocalypse probably won’t happen

From Scott’s blog WILL AUTOMATION LEAD TO ECONOMIC CRISIS?. This is not a post by Scott himself, but rather a written collaboration by two guest contributors about a mutually agreed upon topic: Adversarial collaboration on the question: “Automation/AI will not lead to a general, sustained…