Month: January 2020

Incentives matter. Why is the Euro banknote the most commonly forged currency? Because it’s easy to forge? No, because the consequences are much more lenient compared to forging US bank notes. You forge US banknotes and the secret service will surround you; for euros and the Europol may do something, but likely won’t. It’s like:… Continue reading Incentives matter

Saw this article going viral There Is No Case for the Humanities Among the tech-smart, there is a sort of cognitive dissonance of both supporting technology in so far as promoting progress and well-being (such as reducing global starvation and infant mortality), but also nostalgia and respect for the “old ways of doing things.” Traditionalism… Continue reading Is there a case for the humanities?

I like to think that I am right most of the time, but I have to amend some of my earlier views of IQ as it pertains to success at life. In the past I put IQ above other factors, but now I think IQ is as important as family wealth and networking, not more… Continue reading Revising some views about IQ

The S&P 500 keeps making new highs. It can easily post another 20% gains for 2020. When I say that I am one of the greatest financial forecasters and stock pickers ever, it’s not hyperbole , but backed by data. For example, was right about Tesla and Facebook, but also MasterCard, Visa, Microsoft, Amazon, Uber,… Continue reading How I Understand Stocks and Economics

War or not, there is going to be more defense build-up as a consequence of Soleimani’s assassination, which is good for defense stocks. From a 2020 strategic standpoint, assassinating Soleimani works in Trump’s favor because it boosts patriotism and nationalism among his boomer/gen-x base. On dissent-right and chan sites, gen-z and millennial supporters may be… Continue reading Escalation against Iran good for Trump, stock market

A 2009 article from Seth Godin’s blog recently went viral, Ignore Sunk Costs. A sunk cost in the context of the sunk cost fallacy implies a certain amount of uncertainty of ever recovering the initial investment. Misspelling a sign is a mistake that needs to be fixed, not a sunk cost. For example, if a… Continue reading Getting Sunk Costs Wrong

In 2016 I published my 5-part wealth creation guide about how to beat the S&P 500 by shoring leveraged inverse ETFs. Since publication, the method has worked very well, especially in 2019 when bonds and stocks surged together, but it is also complicated and difficult to implement and also involves risks inherent to short-selling leveraged… Continue reading 3x Leveraged ETF Strategy Guide, Updated for 2020, Part 1: Intro

Some take-aways: 1. No one has any idea what is going to happen, and anyone who claims to have some sort of special foresight as to the matter is probably full of it. Unlike economies and finance, predicting foreign policy is very difficult, if not impossible. Things can change suddenly and unpredictably. How many predicted… Continue reading Some thoughts on Iran

From Scott’s blog WILL AUTOMATION LEAD TO ECONOMIC CRISIS?. This is not a post by Scott himself, but rather a written collaboration by two guest contributors about a mutually agreed upon topic: Adversarial collaboration on the question: “Automation/AI will not lead to a general, sustained economic crisis within our lifetimes or for the foreseeable future.… Continue reading Why the job-apocalypse probably won’t happen

NEWS & POLITICS Our Public Schools Are Churning Out Drones for the Corporate State ‘Schools create obedient workers’ (82 Posts) Think You Know Why Compulsory School Exists? Think Again. Do you think public schools in your country are designed to make kids docile, obedient workers for the upper class? A common narrative is that America’s… Continue reading Is the purpose of school to create obedient workers? Questioning a popular narrative