Over the past three years, I was right about no increased civil unrest, Trump not being impeached [although the odds have increased in recent weeks], no Russian collusion, Mueller investigation being a dud, strong stock market, no recession, etc. I was also correct about the Trump not accomplishing that much, as I predicted in 2016-2017. Save for the tax cuts and some judicial appointments, not a whole lot has happened. To say that the Trump administration has been underwhelming, especially in regard to immigration, is something of an understatement.
I was also correct that Trump is a major advocate of liberal democracy, possibly even more so than any prior administration in US history, contrary to how the media and his detractors portray Trump as a dictator appeaser , when in reality Trump has been very hard on authoritarian governments, such as by imposing sanctions on China, Russia, Turkey, etc. and taking a hard-line against supposed human rights abuses. For example, recently Trump signed a bill backing the Hong Kong protesters.
Should Trump be reelected, here are my prediction for 2021-2025:
1. Similar to his first term, negligible/non-existent progress on the wall and immigration. The wall was DOA. We need to stop pretending the Administration cares about immigration. The GOP and the left want more immigration, as a source of votes, cheap labor, and consumer spending. A reason why the wall was a non-starter , as I said in 2017 it would be, is because no one can hold Trump accountable for not building it. What I mean is, Trump , by default, will be the 2020 GOP nominee, so not making any progress on immigration will not matter because it’s not as if any republican will challenge him, and most republicans want more legal immigration anyway. And the dems certainty cannot hold it against Trump either. It’s not like Bernie or Warren can say “Trump promised a wall but didn’t deliver! I will!” But the dems can and will hold Trump accountable for the economy and foreign policy, which is why Trump has focused so much on the economy, especially, and why Trump is so much harder on the fed for not being accommodating enough, than on China, immigration, Mexico, etc. If the stock market and economy tanks in 2020 (which it won’t), the dems will of course use that against him, so Trump is doing everything in his power to make the market go up as much as possible.
2. No progress on tech censorship of conservatives. The left will continue to ramp-up their censorship and de-platformings with impunity. Anyone to the right of Ben Shapiro or Jordan Peterson is at risk. The reality is, Trump and the mainstream-right does not care that much about the dissident-right being censored or about dissident politics. If anything, a strong dissident-right will only risk splitting the vote.
3. The left will become even more insane. More non-conventional pronoun usage, more trans kids, more trans ports, more wokness, etc. A constitution of the past 3 years, but worse. Not sure if this is due to endogenous factors or due to exogenous factors such as in response to the perceived threat of Trump and his supporters. Probably a mix of both. Fighting the left is not without risks, because it can make the left more aggressive and give them new ideas. Pushing back on gay marriage or unconventional pronoun usage may mean that the left will dig their heels in even deeper, and out of protest and solidarity start demanding that they be called by preferred pronouns, when in the past such a possibility would have never crossed their minds. Consider Jordan Peterson, who in late 2016 and 2017 rose to stardom by opposing Canada’s infamous pronoun bill (C-16). Unfortunately, this may have had the unintended consequence of bringing unconventional pronoun usage to the fore, and not in a way that helps the right. Now companies such as Stack Exchange require that employees refer to people by their preferred pronouns, as stipulated by the “code of conduct.”
4. The continued holiday-i-fication of America. Christmas comes earlier every year. But also secular, pseudo holiday such as Halloween and Valentine’s day, which have assumed holiday-like characteristics. This is possibly to satisfy the void of emptiness in people’s lives that cannot be satisfied with just cheap entertainment and food, that in the past would have possibly been filled by organized religion and civic participation. Americans are working fewer hours than ever before, which means more leisure time, that if unfilled the result is ennui.
5. No increased civil unrest despite surprisingly divided political climate
6. Strong economy and stock market that is impervious to everything thrown at it and defies predictions of collapse. If Trump loses, the bond market will do well due to possibly decreased deficit spending and a slightly increased risk of recession.
7. Increased dominance and strength of the American cultural, economic, and militaristic hegemony. If Trump loses, this hegemony will be lessened a bit. Warren and Sanders seem to be more interested in domestic policy, such as expanding the welfare state and shaking-down the rich, than foreign policy. The quasi-socialist policies of the dems makes America less attractive for foreign investment and makes America less relevant and powerful globally. Sanders or Warren winning would be the best hope of reining in the tech giants, which is what many on the dissident-right, but also the dissident-left, want.
8. There may be a single major legislative accomplishment, but don’t expect much. The next five years will be much like the last three. The dems will still try to find any reason to impeach Trump. There is, in theory, no limit to the number of time the House can vote on impeachment.
9. These Silicon Valley and Seattle tech companies will keep getting bigger and bigger. Trump famously said Amazon is costing the USPS ‘big money,’ but nothing came of this empty threat, predictably. I don’t see anything changing for 2021-2025. Conservatives and liberals alike complain about tech companies having too much power but are unable and or willing to do much about it.
If Trump loses, things will be worse in some regards, possibly better in others. Trump losing may mean the de-platformings may stop. It could open the possibility for a bill that reforms immigration in exchange for an expansion of a social program that the left wants, similar to how Clinton, despite being a democrat, was able to push welfare reform. It’s hard to say.