The Trump Disappointment: Analysis

Trump has played his supporters for suckers


So Trump continues to waffle on his campaign promises, and the dissident-right (which encompass the alt-right, paleo-cons, trad-cons, etc., everyone but neocons) is losing patience. It’s becoming increasingly unlikely there will any substantive immigration reform or construction of a wall. Furthermore, there will be more defense
spending and interventionism in the Middle East, the increased militarization of law enforcement, more surveillance, and an overall a continuation of same policy we’ve grown accustomed to under 24 years of Clinton + Bush + Obama.

I could have told ya’ that 16 months ago…in fact I did multiple times:

‘I don’t think that candidate is who you think he is’

The disappointment of the Trump presidency will be a lesson in avoiding confirmation biases. During Trump’s March 2017 SOTU speech, everyone on the dissent right seemed to ignore the part about increasing defense spending, probably because it was otherwise a good speech that beat expectations and everyone had high hopes, but I didn’t fall for the hype, because I read the transcript. That’s just one of multiple examples of this blog being a few steps ahead of everyone else. You don’t need a high IQ to read a transcript. Given the following policy items: tax cuts, defense spending, and immigration reform, which is the least likely? Obviously immigration if the past 40+ years of GOP history is any clue. Defense and tax cuts are a shoe-in, so that’s what we get.

In terms of Trump’s temperament and mannerisms, again, I know him better than most people on the ‘right’, who mischaracterized Trump as being some sort of ‘god emperor’ (yeah, you Vox Day). Trump is not someone who wants to rock the boat. He’s more of a manager than a commander. He just wants to make sure things are running smoothly with minimal disruption, which explains why he signed the disappointing omnibus bill to prevent a government shutdown, in the process getting one-upped by Shumer, not wage war or make enemies. He seeks to avoid conflict whenever necessary. One of his justifications for signing the bill is it contains provisions for defense, which is always a good selling point for the GOP. From his popular TV show The Apprentice, which offers a glimpse to the general public of Trump’s management style, whenever a fight would erupt in the boardroom, Trump’s first priority was to quell it, not to try to ‘win’, so that meant firing people.

Regarding Ann Coulter again, she continues to demonstrate her ignorance of how American politics works. Even though I agree that democracy and and politics are ineffectual by design, they are still governed by an unchanging axiomatic set of rules. It’s not just her…others are falling into this trap, arguing that Trump will lose in 2020 because he’s betraying his most ardent supporters. As discussed in Belated election analysis: was it just luck? , 90% of the country votes on party affiliation and identity. Scott Adams, who is one of the smartest and most prescient political commentators, is correct that for voters issues are secondary to sentiment and identity. Voters have short memories. They see Trump and think, “he’s not perfect, but at least he’s not Clinton…He may not build a wall, but he’s making incremental steps in the right direction, however slow. He wants to bring jobs back to America and keep America safe, and the economy and stock market has done well under Trump, so that’s good enough for me to vote for him again.” It’s not like “Aghhhh shrieekkkkk NO Wall..bad!! Ahghhhh” (my bad impression of Ann Coulter).