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  • Initial Jobless Claims, Unemployment Rate Due For Huge Rally [Edit or Delete]1 comment
    Mar 1, 2012 10:35 AM
    Not only am I bullish on large cap tech stocks, commodities (gold, oil, grains), gas prices, and treasuries but I'm even bullish on unemployment and jobless claims in that they will suddenly get worse. This will come as a relief to the stock market which wants more job loss, thus ensuring that Bernanke won't raise rates anytime soon, but this combined with surging gas and oil prices will cause substantial headwinds for Obama leading up to the election.

    I'm not buying the story that corporations are suddenly in a long term hiring mood. They want bigger profits and with corporate profits at all time highs, to keep them high the first step is to stop hiring, increase automation & outsourcing, and start trimming the workforce. The current downward trend in unemployment and jobless claims is obviously unsustainable, but the huge rally in stocks and gas prices will keep going even as the employment picture takes a turn for the worse, on the reaffirmation that Bernanke won't be raising rates any time soon. Sectors that are dependent on consumer spending wont be hurt, causing much confusion for the bears, but globalization and booming exports lessens the role of the US consumer in the global macro picture.

    The 2012 target for Initial Jobless Claims is a retest of 400,000 and for unemployment to rise to 9%, just in time for the election. The DJIA will hit 14,000 and gas $4.00-$4.40 nationally and oil $130. Even a worsening housing market and falling ISM won't put a debt in the bull market provided that exports, productivity, consumerism, and profits and earnings keep doing great (which I know they will).

    Asset inflation still unstoppable. My home will keep going up, stocks will keep going up, the valuations of facebook & twitter keep going up. Rich will keep getting richer, more gridlock in DC, more buy all dips.

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  • Enjoyed your piece on dyseconomics. It is so counter to traditional perception, but as all actions are rational from an individual's perspective, it is staggering to see the consequences of actions benefiting the few at the top of the food chain on the back of the many not paying attention; and not seeing any reaction from them.

    Although I fundamentally disagree with what is being done on the long-term soundness and stability of the entire worldwide system on not allowing collapse when collapse is due, I must say I thoroughly like to read your posts for relatively accurately reporting thus far the consequences of the insanity being effected on a grand scale. I don't like what you write, but I'll give it to you; you have been right on the button thus far, and probably will be for a good while longer until production in the west is as cheap as in China.

    I'll wager that you'll be wrong on Romney/Obama, but I don't see why it would matter who wins in November.

    I'll have a question for you though; as redistribution of wealth in a populace (a historical tradition, both within and between "nations") can not go to a scale of 1:100, what do you think the endgame will look like; that would be an interesting article to read from your perspective.

    Obscurely interesting times to live. Keep up posting.
    7 Mar, 08:42 AM Reply Like
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