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  • This Stock Market Keeps Going Up And Libs Keep Being Wrong [Edit or Delete]2 comments
    Apr 19, 2012 9:11 AM | about stocks: UGA, AAPL, PCLN, TLT

    This stock market is insane like Tupac...It always goes up. In just seven trading days the DJIA has added over 500 points, the greatest rally so far this year due to yet another predictable quarter of blowout profits & earnings, benign debt auctions and accommodative policy in Europe.

    Thankfully, no one with deciding power takes any of the leftist nonsense on blogs like zerohedge seriously. 'talking to a brick wall' would be a good idiom for how ineffective financial blogs are at shaping policy. Those blogs recycle the same conspiracies and themes about shadow volume,impending crisis, and supposed market manipulation but with slightly rewritten headlines, and it isn't long before people stop caring. You'll go to a site like businessinsider and people don't even read the articles anymore cuz it's just the same rehashed crap over and over. Either put up or shutup; make a correct prediction, or otherwise go away. 'Risks' 'recession' 'crisis' are some of the most overused words.

    For q1 80% of companies have beaten estimates and if you had read this blog this would come as no surprise as I have been rapaciously bullish. Even after a 100% gain in earnings and stock prices since March 2009, the S&P 500 earnings outlook couldn't be better than it is now. It's like 1995 all over again except with 0% interest rates forever and billions of new potential customers due to the BRIC boom.

    Those profit margins won't be contracting anytime soon. The good news is hiring has slowed considerably in the past two months as evidenced by recent weak unemployment claims reports, so stocks will keep going up because companies are in perpetual cost cutting super-productivity mode. Everything changed after 2008 with the emphasis on globalization and efficiency. Lackadaisical workers were the first to go and many of the jobs lost since 2008 won't be coming back, but we're better off without them. No one on Wall St. is losing sleep because mainstreet's loss is Wall St.'s gain. The shared sacrifice of many to enrich a few is for the good of the economy. The free market is still the best path to prosperity.

    The libs predicted back in 2011 that the debt binge would not be sustainable (wrong)

    They Predicted:

    • Profit margins would contract (wrong)
    • Pain at the pump would hurt consumer spending (wrong)
    • Global slowdown and China hard landing (both wrong)
    • Europe debt crisis would spread (wrong)
    • Bank bailouts wouldn't work, that QE2 wouldn't work (both wrong)
    • AAPL was starting a new correction phase (WRONG)
    • Bear market in stocks (wrong)
    • Bond bear market, 10-year spike above 3% (both wrong)
    • Collapse of the Municipal Bond Market (wrong)
    • Housing and shadow inventory would slow economy (wrong)
    • Weak labor market would hurt consumer spending (wrong)

    See a pattern? If a consensus begins to develop among the lft about some new bearish economic trend you can bet your life savings that the exact opposite will happen. These underlying trends, while extremely unpopular with the public, are incredibly resilient due to a multitude of global factors.

    You got that 'bond bubble' that refuses to pop even as the major indexes keep surging higher. TLT is above 116, a 3 week high, even as the DJIA is up 500 points in a 6-day period. The world is awash with so much liquidity that's it's flowing into ALL asset classes, including those that have traditionally had inverse correlations. Stocks, treasuries, municipal bonds, and commodities will keep rallying together. Oil and prices are unstoppable. Massive squeeze for mainstreet as they are forced to max out the credit card to fill up the tank, but supposedly gas prices are considered volatile lol. Even I will admit that is crap. Pull up a 3 year chart of UGA and the trend is obviously 'up' with a few large corrections.

    Oh and My top picks are UGA PCLN TLT and AAPL

    Stocks: UGA, AAPL, PCLN, TLT
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This post has 2 comments:

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  • First, you call ZeroHedge "leftist"? It is neither leftist nor liberal at all, IMO. It is perhaps "libertarian" which is more conservative than "the right". Anyway...

    What about:
    - Jobs (or lack thereof)
    - European Recession/Depression
    - Chinese Hard Landing

    What do I know. Nice writeup; not trying to be a jerk, I just wondering how you see these playing out and if they influence your perma-bull attitude. Also, lets not forget the fact that QE is alive and well. Fed pumping has accounted for virtually all the stock market run-up over the last two years. As proof, the market has consistently rolled over each time a given QE has ended. Thoughts? Thanks in advance.
    20 Apr, 06:00 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for reading and your comment

    Zerohedge is liberal because the credo of the writers and commentors is to abolish the fed, which corroborates with that of OWS, an overtly liberal movement. If the fed were abolished or hindered a lot of wealth would be destroyed via a falling stock market, which would make the 1% a lot poorer.

    The Chinese hard landing never happened because it's ecnomy is still gorwing at 8% a year.

    The European recession hasn't technically happened and damage appears contained to only the weaker components like Greece Italy and Spain.

    The absence of jobs hasn't been shown to have much of a negative impact on consumer spending or S&P 500 profits & earnings, so I'm not too worried over it.
    10 May, 12:42 PM Reply Like
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