Correct Predictions, Part 3

Awhile back, I wrote that stocks would be a good buy should the market fall on ‘exit’ win.

In agreement with James Altucher, for long-term US investors, Brexit doesn’t mean anything (it may actually be a positive), and I remain optimistic about the US stock market going forward. Brexit will not prevent Facebook and Google from earnings billions of dollars in ad clicks, nor stop people from shopping on Amazon, going to Disneyland, or eating at McDonald’s.

The S&P 500 fell about 4% following the vote, only to rebound 5.5% two weeks later:

Not only has the market recovered all its Brexit losses, it has made new multi-month highs.

Bexit is not going to keep people from spending, won’t keep people from using Facebook or Google.

Secondly, a month ago I used a simple calculation to show that the bad non-farm payrolls number a month ago was an outlier that, statistically, was due to happen and not in any way proof of recession or long-term trend.

Sure enough, June jobs data crushed expectations: US created 287K jobs in June vs. 175K expected, unemployment rate at 4.9 pc

Jobs watchers had been expecting Friday’s jobs report to show a substantial rebound from May’s unexpectedly weak growth, but the June number easily topped expectations.

Economists surveyed by Reuters said they were, on average, expecting nonfarm payrolls to show growth of 175,000 for June, and the unemployment rate to rise to 4.8 percent.

Comments are closed.