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stock_creeper
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  • Shorting Stocks..are you insane?  [Edit or Delete]1 comment
    Jul 28, 2011 12:14 PM
    stocks up huge again today
    someone phone wall st., apple, google...and tell them there is supposed to be a crisis lol
     
    The pros are still expecting a big Q4 rally like in 2010
    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/926530-stock_creeper/187679-getting-ready-for-the-huge-q4-rally
    None of these things like European debt or debt ceiling are a big deal

    You have to be insane to short this market

    -Obammi trailing Mitt Romney in major swing states. HIllary and McCain were right about Obama's destain for working, hardworking white Americans. Oh and the failed trillion dollar stimlus that was supposed to create jobs but didn't, and finally tactlessly calling 10% unemployment a 'bump in the road'.
    www.businessinsider.com/obama-trails-rom...
    -Washinton isn't going to give the middle finger to bond holders. Bond holders will still be first in line as confirmed by the treasury department.
    -Obammi is falling in the polls. The latest readings put him at only 43% approval thanks to his perceived incompetence in handling the debt situation..Wall st. is loving this because republicans are better for the economy  in terms of championing deregulation and growth. 
    -PE ratio of the S&P 500 still just 14 , which is much lower than in 2007 when it was at 20
    -austerity kicking in. That means fewer wasteful social programs
    -small biz failure & job loss is good for economy. If small biz hires too much it will create the perception that the economy is recovering and rates may go up.
    -11 consecutive quarters of blowout earnings (goog, ibm, apple, bidu, amzn, clf, nflx,.. the list goes on)
    -world awash with infinite liquidity
    -pro-growth economic policy by the fed and congress
    -free market & globalism and huge exports
    -huge gains in worker productivity
    -bailout mentality (nothing is too big to fail)
    -huge foreign consumption benefiting US exporters
    -falling dollar benefiting US exporters
    -surging living expenses forcing mainstreet to spend more while and because it's not bond inflation policy makers won't call it inflation. 
    -a second internet boom, but with much better fundamentals than the first one 
    -massive demand for US debt. Even if the USA loses its triple A status it won't hurt treasury bonds. Yields will continue to remain at 'crisis levels' 
     
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    I can't find one correct statement in this entire post!

    1. "destain" should be "disdain." Pardon my splitting hairs but poor spelling is one of my personal peeves. Even more so when you consider most of these boards have spell checkers built right in!

    2. "Wall st. is loving this because republicans are better for the economy." The overall economy has traditionally done better under Democrat presidents, and to a lesser extent, Congresses.

    3. "If small biz hires too much it will create the perception that the economy is recovering and rates may go up." And if small biz does NOT hire there will be no one to buy discretionary products either. Chicken and egg.

    4. "pro-growth economic policy by the fed and congress" What planet are you on??

    5. "huge gains in worker productivity" Only because unemployment is up. I guess all those highly productive workers can make LOTS of products to be purchased by unemployed people.

    6. "falling dollar benefiting US exporters" Not to mention making oil and other commodities more expensive, as well as the fact that the Dollar is the World Reserve Currency...

    Bottom line: Equities are still at unrealistic prices. The US Government has once again kicked the can down the road and magnified the problem for the future generation. There is a lot of unwinding left to do in this world market, and you'd have to be crazy not to view the current numbers with a lot of doubt and cynicism.
    3 Aug 2011, 03:13 PM Reply Like
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