stock_creeper's  Instablog

With the jaw dropping success of the Linkedin IPO pesimists are frenzily looking for comparisons between the present and the April 2000 apex of the internet bubble, and even if such comparisons seem valid they will bear no fruit. History tends to rhyme a lot but it seldom repeats (at least in terms of stocks and economics).

Linkedin tripling in its first day of trading does not mean we're on the brink of another  tech induced bear market.  Sorry, but no amount of whining about the deficit, unemployment or entitlements will bring a return of 2008 or 1929 ; the return of doom and gloom,  selloffs,  the rich losing their shirts. Instead, stocks will keep going up, rich will get richer, interest rates at 0% forever and more pain at the pump.

According to Bloomberg Linkedin, unlike pets.com or theglobe.com of the 2000 tech bubble, is doubling its earnings every year, has turned a profit, and has little competition.

www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-12/linked...

The new era of Dyseconomics which began in 2001 is never going away.

CEOs and most economists know unemployed people help the economy MORE by not working and using Netflix, Facebook, or Priceline (as well as giving Bernanke an excuse to keep rates low forever because Bernanke believes in the Philips curve) than being employed and costing employers money for performing slow, redundant, overpaid work.

Remember the chart comparisons of Great Depression for the past two years and how ALL of those comparisons failed?

this chart ..I'm sure you've all seen it or updated versions

www.metlin.org/blog/wp-content/uploads/2...

The same failure will bestowed upon the gloomers regarding Linkedin.

Unlike in 2000 or 1929 we have a fed that will keep rates at 0% forever to ensure the stock market always goes up. That's why the chart similarities between 1929 and 2009 or 2000 are moot because the technical analysis does not take into account the fed. Meanwhile, consumers are maxing out the credit card combined with huge gains in exports.  Don’t fight the fed, don’t fight globalism, don’t underestimate the US & global consumer.

Predictions

Linkedin: $300-500 by end of year (i'm long since $87 so any upside is gravy)