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  • We All Want Another 2008, 2000,1929 [Edit or Delete]1 comment
    May 19, 2011 1:58 PM

    With the jaw dropping success of the Linkedin IPO pesimists are frenzily looking for comparisons between the present and the April 2000 apex of the internet bubble, and even if such comparisons seem valid they will bear no fruit. History tends to rhyme a lot but it seldom repeats (at least in terms of stocks and economics).

    Linkedin tripling in its first day of trading does not mean we're on the brink of another  tech induced bear market.  Sorry, but no amount of whining about the deficit, unemployment or entitlements will bring a return of 2008 or 1929 ; the return of doom and gloom,  selloffs,  the rich losing their shirts. Instead, stocks will keep going up, rich will get richer, interest rates at 0% forever and more pain at the pump.

    According to Bloomberg Linkedin, unlike or of the 2000 tech bubble, is doubling its earnings every year, has turned a profit, and has little competition.

    The new era of Dyseconomics which began in 2001 is never going away.

    CEOs and most economists know unemployed people help the economy MORE by not working and using Netflix, Facebook, or Priceline (as well as giving Bernanke an excuse to keep rates low forever because Bernanke believes in the Philips curve) than being employed and costing employers money for performing slow, redundant, overpaid work.

    Remember the chart comparisons of Great Depression for the past two years and how ALL of those comparisons failed?

    this chart ..I'm sure you've all seen it or updated versions

    The same failure will bestowed upon the gloomers regarding Linkedin.

    Unlike in 2000 or 1929 we have a fed that will keep rates at 0% forever to ensure the stock market always goes up. That's why the chart similarities between 1929 and 2009 or 2000 are moot because the technical analysis does not take into account the fed. Meanwhile, consumers are maxing out the credit card combined with huge gains in exports.  Don’t fight the fed, don’t fight globalism, don’t underestimate the US & global consumer.


    Linkedin: $300-500 by end of year (i'm long since $87 so any upside is gravy)


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  • Stock Creeper (what does that mean BTW? Just Curious.),

    I almost want to buy into what you are saying except that many of your arguments are flawed and incorrect. Basically, companies need people to consume to be profitable and people need money and jobs to consume. Not just talking domestically, but globally. You speak as if this is some master plan or conspiracy that has been laid down by the rich that has been laid by the uber rich elite, when all it is are the banks (and the elite wealthy corporates) trying to keep the whole thing from unravelling, but it is not working, it only appears to be through manipulation of the economic numbers and mass financial media. QE cannot and will not go on for ever. QE 2 is probably the last large scale liquidity infusion into the monetary base that we will see in our lifetime.

    Look, it is just going to take 1 or 2 insolvent Euro countries to walk away from the debts and the Euro and it's game over and this is the best case scenario as it is probably at least a year before that happens. In all likelihood, the big players will take the equities market down themselves because they will make a ton of money shorting the market on the way down and then buying back in after the big correction that's coming.
    19 May 2011, 10:14 PM Reply Like
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