stock_creeper's  Instablog

This post is brought to you by McDonald's Truth (we swear you'll never eat there again), by Roll Up The Rim, and Stop the UK Petrol Ripoff.

Also a shout-out to my neighborhood where housing always goes up. No housing bubble where I live.

The dips keep being bought over and over and over again.

Greece and France election? Yaaawn doesn't matter according to Wall St. profits & earnings rebound rally is ON. Buy buy. Liberals were expecting stocks to open 150 points lower on Monday. That didn't happen lol.

Greece and France is evidence that stocks typically fall when liberals gain power. Austerity is good for growth by focusing spending on things that are pro-growth like bailouts versus useless social safety net programs.

Wake me up when there's a problem. Global slowdown over so soon? Stocks up again? This media generated crisis is sure painful. lol

This is a purely economic fundamentals driven rally and that's why these huge funds are ignoring Europe, jobs, housing or debt. For all the headlines these supposed risks generate the economic damage, on the other hand, has proven to be minimal to non-existent. So you get a 4-10 point selloff on some bad news in Europe and the funds step in and drive the market green a few hours later.

Liberals want the market and economy to fail so they can push their agenda of equality. They blame the bear market and 2008 recession on surging gas prices, the fed and inequality when there's no evidence those things were culpable.

Liberals makes the all too common mistake of equating labor market health with overall economic health. Reading Gary Anderson's interminable posts about Bush's housing bubble or 'banksters' could cure insomnia, so it's recommended you have a full night of sleep before reading the comments because he does post a lot. Unregrettably, no lessons have been learned since 2008, but with stocks and profits doing so well no one is losing sleep over forgotten lessons. A crisis averted is a crisis solved. The labor market and equities have diverged since 2009 due to dyseconomics, but these journalists and economists are still clueless about how the economy actually works, versus how they wish the economy worked.

Only a small fraction of the jobs lost in 2007-2009 recession have been recovered, but profits & earnings and exports are at historic highs. THe PE ratio of the S&P 500 is only 13 even though the index is at 1400. In October 2007 when the S&P 500 peaked at 1550 it had a PE ratio of 22, so we can extrapolate a present S&P 500 value of 2370 with a 22 PE ratio. That 820 point difference is pure earnings thanks to things like blowout consumer spending, globalization, productivity, fed policy, and exports. This is incontrovertible proof that we're not only in an economic boom, but one which has decoupled from the labor and housing market. Until unemployment falls to 0% and labor participation hits 100%, we can expect more 'America is in decline' type articles and books from liberals like Krugman, Schiff and Stiglitz all the while stocks will keep going higher.

At least 9/10 times the collective consciousness of Wall St. is smarter than the media or blogs, the recent exceptions being 2000 and 2008. If the media and blogs calls something a 'bubble' rest assured it isn't.

America exited the overblown financial crisis in a more dominant position than when it entered. In 2007 interest rates were at 4.5 percent and the BRIC indexes were outperforming. Fast forward five years and BRIC indexes have lagged the S&P 500 considerably and the dollar has become the superlative reserve currency due to renewed confidence in America as an island of economic tranquility in an uncertain world. US GDP growth exceeds ANY country in the Eurozone. Foreigners and pension funds can't get enough of the greenback. So much demand, so little yield. Facebook and Apple alone have created $600 billion in equity since 2009. Silicon valley and Manhattan are insular colonies of Smarties, creating the next generation of globalism and productivity accelerating technologies.

In 2008 the world crossed to rubicon to the type 1 transition and there is no turning back. For the next decade and beyond will be much like the last three years of stocks always going up and exponential widening of the wealth gap. Again, Kurgman is wrong because downward economic mobility and people falling between the cracks is still compatible with a strong economy. You can still have a sustainable economic boom even if few people can participate or perceive it.

We can have our jobloss and eat our profits, too. We can have stocks going up forever. We can buy all dips. We should spend more hours on Facebook. Let's max out the credit card as our patriotic duty as good consumers. Let's learn to embrace structural unemployment and pain at the pump. Time to spend, spend, spend. I want more spending.

http://www.businessinsider.com/revealed-business-insiders-official-prediction-for-aprils-jobs-report-2012-5

Wall Street is keenly focused on the big datapoint of the month - the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls Report.

I can't imagine how this number can be bad. If it misses stocks will rally due to increased odds of QE and more job loss is indicative of fatter S&P 500 profits down the road. If the number is good it will lend credence to the recovery.

The announcement will help characterize how the economy is performing, and more importantly, if the drop in gains logged just last month means more anemic growth is to come.

Wrong. A bad number doesn't mean anemic growth! 80% of S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates, in fact this is the strongest earnings report in years. The economy is booming and a weak job number doesn't change this. Job less claims are at 5 month highs, for example, but S&P 500 earnings are at historic highs. No correlation, you see?

Using a series of data sets, including regional Federal Reserve surveys and historical economist accuracy, Business Insider forecasts non farm payrolls will increase by 146,000 individuals.

That figure is slightly below consensus estimates on Wall Street, which peg the number at 160,000.

Again, Wall St. wants a miss, and the bigger the better. It could come in at 60,000 and the futures will probably dip, but I guarantee that the following Monday stocks will close higher than they did on Thursday.

If that number holds, it will represent the eighth consecutive month the economy has added more than 100,000 jobs, and it would keep the country's unemployment rate at 8.2 percent.

My target rate is only 20,000-30,000 new monthly jobs. Job creation may even turn negative. There is no positive endgame for the job picture. More productivity is store for the future, labor is on the way out.

Although more than half of banks project unemployment to be unchanged in April, some, including Deutsche Bank's Joe LaVorgna, see the headline rate ticking down again.