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  • The stock market always goes up and about the gloomers [Edit or Delete]3 comments
    Jul 19, 2011 11:13 AM
    Stocks up again huge today. No shocker..this market..it's always going up these days. since 2009..up up up uo it goes to the moon. There's no crisis that can't be placated with the reassuance of quarter after quarter of blowout earnings, bailouts, consumption, liqudity, and pro-growth policy. 
     
    Gloomers love to create historical analogues between present and the past events to justify lower prices as history repeats supposedly inevitably 'repeats' itself. That's wrong. Instead, history tends to rhyme but it seldom repeats. What that means is there will only be ONE Lehman, one Great depression, ONE pets.com or webvan.com, ONE 90's tech bubble. etc . Similarities between present and past events DOESN'T imply the same outcome! Web stocks are overvalued now in terms of PE ratios as they were in 1999. But the outcome in 2000-2003 (big stock market crash) isn't happening now. There are subtle differences that belie these supposedly 'robust' historical analogues and it's these differences are the difference between a long, sustainable rally (google, amazon, linkedin) and a fizzle (pets.com, webvan). 
     
    The disconnect between wall st. & Washington and mainstreet keeps widening. 10% unemployment and no alarms going off. No one seems to care that much, or has any good solutions. The bond market is snoozing though the debt ceiling impasse, meaning that it probably isn't a legitimate economic threat. 
     
    Complaining about "kicking the an down the road" "pushing on a string", "moral hazard" or the long-term danger of Helicopter Ben's policy will get you no where as a stock picker. Pro-growth monetary policy is good for stocks. Deal with it.
     
    The USA takes in over $2 trillion in year tax revenue yet interest in the debt accounts for less than $200 billion, so even if the debt ceiling isn't raised paying the bond holders shouldn't be an issue. China's booming eonomy and trade surplus is helping to keep interest rates low, which is why any form protectionism would be bad for the economy not only in terms of slowing growth but creating inflation. 
     
    The liberals and libertarians want to see a day of reckoning-for all debt to be retired or cancelled and the economy to grind to a halt. It ain't gonna happen.
     
    The facebook/twitter/netflix economy is where the growth is. The leave Britney alone and Rebecca Black economy is doing better than ever. Uploading pictures on facebook contributes more to the economy more than slow, ovepraid American workers doing redunt work that can easily be outsourced, automated, or simply eliminated. Between the mid 90's and 2007 there has been a labor gut..too many jobs in failing sectors and not enough profits. The finanial crisis was the crucial paradigm shift to eliminate this glut and restore America's competitiveness. Instead of whining about government spending or bailouts, we need to keep making out the credit cards. We need a wider weath gap and put food on the family. 
     
    Commodities going nuts due to speculation, global demand and a falling dollar. China's strong economic numbers a few days ago is not only super bullish for S&P 500 exporters, but bullish for treasury bonds because China's trade surplus helps depresses rates. Thus BRIC surpluusess act as a QE program that always runs in the background, inflating a variety of asset classes such as stocks, commodities, treasury bonds, and even munis. This is why bernanke never has to raise interest rates again, despite quarter after quarter of blowout S&P 500 earnings and a 100% gain in the S&P 500 from the 2009 lows. Europe's economy, on the other hand, is growing much more slowly than the USA but interest rates are higher because the Euro does't have the same reserve status as the dollar. 
     
    Dow 14,000 coming up.
     
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    clearly, you are as stupid as you look
    19 Jul 2011, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  •  
    The facebook/twitter/netflix economy is where the growth is. The leave Britney alone and Rebecca Black economy is doing better than ever. Uploading pictures on facebook contributes more to the economy more than slow, ovepraid American workers doing redunt work that can easily be outsourced, automated, or simply eliminated.

    Sure --- based on a dumbed down shallow 'consumer' populace. Twitter & Facebook make absolutely nothing... exactly what product or service do they sell?? those 'facebook' credit gift cards you see at supermarket check out counters??
    What you are really saying is that if you are 'middle aged' (meaning over 35), not attractive (if you are overweight you may as well end it) and not dressed in full priced clothing from Nordstrom or SAKS you are SOL in the 'nouveau economy' of today
    20 Jul 2011, 12:42 AM Reply Like
  •  
    10% unemployment doesn't matter because as it said on the radio talk shows -- it is only drug addicts, lazy people & people are are damaged goods who can't get hired. People love to say that 4.5% is unemployment rate for college grads but starting salaries are the same as when I graduated college 10 years ago --- try paying back students loans & credit cards debts totaling in the six figures on a $45,000 a year salary... I barely survive on double that salary and have no wife, child or even pet to support nor do I ever go out or on vacation
    20 Jul 2011, 12:45 AM Reply Like
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