Meta and Bitcoin Recover: Why I’m Still Right

With Bitcoin having crossed $86k a few days ago, there is talk of a “new cycle”:

So it would seem as if I was wrong and lost money? Not so fast. Tech stocks, such as Meta and semiconductors, went up huge in that period, so I made more money from those. Plus, large profits from Polymarket and Kalshi bets on Strait of Hormuz contracts. So overall, I didn’t lose anything.

It’s worth keeping in mind nothing has changed between now and 2 months ago:

–no Clarity Act (killed off last week)

–no Bitcoin reserve (expectations were high for this in early 2025. nothing.)

–no support from trump (no direct investment in crypto assets or endorsements to buy Bitcoin)

–Iran still bad (this was so obvious, hence my Polymarket bets)

–inflation high (“affordability” situation predictably not going to get better)

It’s the same pattern as seen in 2025-2026: bitcoin will stall out and crash as tech stocks stabilize or go up when the realization dawns there will be no Clarity Act, no help from admin, no reserve, and worsening inflation, which crypto currency cannot hedge.

Speaking of tech stocks, Meta surged to $740 this week, in which I own a position.

Which brings me to the worst forecaster possibly ever, “Mark Zuckerberg’s Empire Is Now Crumbling” posted on Jul 30, 2026, by “honest broker” Ted Gioia. He said:

Meta fans were angry at me, but subsequent events have validated my concerns. Meta’s shares have fallen almost $250 per share since then—that’s a decline of half a trillion dollars in market value.

No one is “mad” at you. You’re just a bad forecaster who has been saying the same thing for the past five years and refuses to admit when you’re wrong, hoping no one notices. People do notice. That’s why they’re calling you out, which you interpret as anger. It has nothing to do with being a “fan of Meta”. You are a terrible forecaster who refuses to admit that.

At least my forecasts have almost all come true. Bitcoin has lagged the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since 2021 and even farther back. It has lagged considerably since 2025, missing out on the semiconductor/AI surge, just like I predicted. There was no Bitcoin reserve (the stockpile was not a reserve) or direct investment in crypto assets/stocks.

It gets worse. In December 2023, when Meta was at $100-125, he wrote “How Web Platforms Collapse: The Facebook Case Study” predicting the total collapse of the company and likening it to MySpace. He said,

The situation at Facebook is now uglier than MC Hammer’s wardrobe closet. Meta is the worst performing stock in the S&P 500 this year. In other words, there were 499 other companies in the composite that did better—and this was a tough year all around in financial markets.
Mark Zuckerberg has personally lost more than $100 billion. In fact, he lost $11 billion in a single day. Has that ever happened before in human history? Almost exactly 12 months earlier, I’d written an article entitled “Meta Is for Losers”—but even I never envisioned losses on this scale,

It’s now at $750. By comparison, I was telling people to buy Meta stock at $100. What he and others at the time failed to notice is Facebook/Meta is an advertising juggernaut. It makes so much money from ads that the failure of the Metaverse is now immaterial. Also, how can the platform just “die”. Myspace died because it was superseded by Facebook. What comes after Instagram or Facebook? When you think about it, nothing.

Yes, Meta can spend $50 billion from 2021-2023 on a failed VR initiative and now $150 billion on an “AI pivot” to catch up with Open AI and Anthropic, and still the stock has increased 7x in 3 years. That is how insanely profitable and huge Meta’s core advertising business is. Will the AI pivot be a success comparable to Anthropic or Open AI? Probably not. But it does not matter.