Month: September 2026

So far I have been right about almost everything: Item #1: On Polymarket, the odds of the Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal has plunged even more. This has been one of my most profitable trades ever in terms of ROI. The “no” contract surged from 18 to 84 cents in about 2.5 months,… Continue reading The daily view 9/10/2026 Polymarket huge Iran win, AI vs Writing, AI vs Math, and Hedging

In Ed West’s viral post, “Doomscrolling ourselves to death,” the contrast between Truman and Trump is interesting: Marriott contrasts Harry Truman, who ruled America during the peak of literacy, with the current incumbent. Truman ‘was the son of a livestock dealer in Independence, Missouri. And yet as an earnest and bespectacled schoolboy he spent great… Continue reading The Optimality Thesis: Why America Doesn’t Need a Smart President

“U.S. payrolls rose 162,000 in August, much more than expected; unemployment rate at 4.1%:” The U.S. economy added jobs at a brisk pace in August, reversing a summer slowdown in hiring, while the unemployment rate held steady. Nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 162,000 for the month while the unemployment rate, as expected, held steady… Continue reading The daily view 9/6/2026: No mass unemployment due to AI, Nike’s downfall , AI and cheating

Bitcoin plunged on the aforenoted job report, erasing yesterday’s gain. (Disclosure: I remain short Bitcoin.) This is why shorting Bitcoin is the best hedge, as was originally my idea. Bitcoin has much more beta/sensitivity to the downside, whether it’s inflation due to too many jobs, or crisis due to deflation and job loss. Or bad… Continue reading Buying tech and shorting Bitcoin as a play on “power dynamics”

This Andrew Yang tweet was going viral: Heard about a small college in the Midwest that has lost 50% of its enrollment in the last 10 years. Hundreds of colleges are going to close in the next decade and it’s going to be devastating for many communities. — Andrew Yang🧢⬆️🇺🇸 (@AndrewYang) August 30, 2026 Whether… Continue reading The Cope of Predicting Higher Ed’s Death