Month: January 2025

The first Daily View of 2025. Item #1: Polymarket gives 23% odds of Trump creating a national crypto reserve in his first 100 days. Betting “no” is like picking up dollars on the sidewalk. I have already placed bets on this contract, expecting to earn an easy 20% in the next 100 days as nothing… Continue reading The daily view 1/3/2025: Bitcoin and Polymarket, Stocks overvalued?, Elon on Mounjaro…

Jimmy Carter died. Many of the critiques of his presidency come off as circular, e.g. “Jimmy Carter was bad because the economy was bad,” which although true, does not necessarily implicate Carter. The ’70s were sluggish due to many factors: high commodity prices due to Middle East conflict and embargoes, high inflation due to oil,… Continue reading 2025 predictions, and recap of 2024