The coin massacre continues:
Bitcoin has now fallen 4000 points since I put out my memo 2.5 weeks ago telling people to sell.
Will there be a price that if Bitcoin hits, my bearish thesis will be invalidated? The answer is, Bitcoin is never going to go high enough that I would have to make such a reconsideration. Tom Lee says Bitcoin will end the year above 25,000. His original forecast was 20,000 by Summer but given how this thing is dropping with no bottom in sight, he had to revise his forecast downward. If he is right, which I know he won’t be, but let’s just pretend he is, then I will admit being wrong, but given how seldom I am wrong, that will not happen. The reason why Bitcoin went so high last year was on the premise that wealthy people and institutions would for some reason decide to put all their money in Bitcoin-the-called store of value argument. That’s also why the Lightning Network debut has not helped the price, because as every already knows, Bitcoin as a payment system is merely an inferior version of cash and credit. It’s like…convert your dollars, which have protection and are easy to use, for some digital tokens/coins which if lost or stolen you’re are SOL. However, not nearly enough wealthy people are buying bitcoin.
The media is coming up up with stupid explanations for why Bitcoin is falling, ignoring the obvious ones I have given, probably because they have a vested interest in trying to pump the price, so feeding people erroneous information is one way to do that. Google banning Bitcoin ads is laughably trivial and is not why Bitcoin has fallen so much in the past week. The typical person doing a Google search for Bitcoin has little money. But also,everyone has already heard of Bitcoin by now, given how much the media keeps talking about it. Anyone who would have bought would have done so by now. With the supply of ‘dumb money’ dried up and not enough billionaires and millionaires buying, whales who are liquidating will continue to erode the price.
No one is gonna get rich with this stuff anymore, and those who still have a lot of money in Bitcoin will either go down with the ship, or in capitulation liquidate at a very unfavorable price, especially if everyone rushes to the exit at once. I’m just happy I exited 80% of my position between $19-10.5k. At least I’m telling people while Bitcoin is ‘high’ to sell, whereas most people were bearish when it was a few hundred dollars. Those who took my advice would have bought in 2013-2017 between $200-2000 and exited in 2018 around $19k-7k.