As everyone knows, Trump’s impeachment odds have surged due to recent revelations of possible ‘obstruction of justice’ following Comey’s disclosure to the NYT, and consequently the S&P 500 fell nearly 2%.
Here are some reasons why I’m not worried and why the market will rebound soon:
None of Trump’s action constitute an impeachable offense. Trump had the authority to fire Comey. “When he fired Comey, he had authority to do that. None of this makes his actions correct, but they do make his actions legal.” Source: Trump’s impeachment not likely – yet. The only way Trump could conceivably be impeached is if information were disclosed linking Trump to the DNC hacks and or if Trump leaked classified information to Russia, but so far no smoking gun for either.
The majority of Republicans support the firing:
Removing a president is very hard and involves many steps:
For one, the Republican Party has demonstrated no interest whatsoever in even beginning discussions—let alone launching—an impeachment probe. Such a move would not only further degrade Trump’s credibility but probably drag the GOP into the muck with him. Lest we forget, the GOP holds all the levers of power in Washington. This means that the Republican majority in the House of Representatives would need to cooperate on some level to make an impeachment proceeding a reality.
Trump – impeachment very, very unlikely and regardless it wouldn’t be positive. There is a lot of talk about Trump impeachment and how a President Pence could be a positive. It is way, way too early to begin having the impeachment conversation. Impeachment is much more a political (instead of a legal) process and w/the GOP controlling both chambers and Trump’s popularity in the party being (relatively) healthy the political dynamics don’t signal impeachment. That could change in Jan ’19 assuming Republicans lose either the House or Senate in Nov ’18 but if that happens the whole pro-growth agenda would grind to a halt. The impeachment bar is very, very high (no president ever has been removed from office as a result of impeachment; two had articles of impeachment brought up in the House before being acquitted in the Senate; one resigned before going through the process). The daily scandals obviously don’t help Trump’s political capital but market expectations for legislative action are already very low.
The worst case is, Trump leaves office early and Pence takes over. But even then, it won’t be a big deal, because Pence will continue where Trump left off. The only difference is that everything will be pushed back 6-12 months, depending on how long the investigation takes (and this is assuming impeachment hearings actually commence). The Trump tax cuts will still happen. It’s not like Hillary and her team takes over. The left fails to grasp that Trump being impeached does not imply a victory for Hillary, but rather one for Pence. One advantage Pence has is he may be better-able to navigate Congress than Trump.