Time for an end year assessment of various investments and prognostications:
The good:
Consumer discretionary and large cap tech ETFs post large gains in an otherwise flat market, as I predicted. Emerging markets, energy, and commodity stocks fall, also agreement with my predictions.
Web 2.0 valuations surge, with notable examples being Snapchat, Uber, and Air BNB. Even though you cannot invest in these, I was right anyway. Also right about Facebook, Google, and Amazon stock, all of which keep going up.
Recommended gong long SVXY at $47; now at $58 due to the market rebound.
Bay Area real estate prices continue to rise in 2015.
The mediocre:
Market is only up 2% YTD. Expected a bigger rally. August stock plunge a setback. Now it’s up 3%. There is still month left, and it can easily rise another 3% or so. The &P 500 has more upside for 2016.
The bad:
Biotech reversal in late 2015 caught me off guard; no longer recommend the sector, because large cap tech index fund (QQQ) is better. You get the same upside but with less risk. Ali Baba stock, which I am still bullish, has been flat. Same for Tesla stock, also surprising to me. I own neither of these though. Made mistake with volatility trade.