Overall, 2016 was a good year. Traffic to the blog continues to grow, with the fourth quarter of 2016 being the strongest ever, although it’s still nothing to write home about. Perhaps there was too much activism this year, both with the 2016 presidential election and Brexit, and this may have resulted in a loss of focus and dilution of NRx due to the admixture with the more activist-orientated alt-right. In writing laudatory articles about Trump, I too, to some extent, succumbed to this. But the election was a huge deal that demanded some attention.
My 2016 predictions were mostly correct: stocks kept going higher, inflation was tame, the dollar rose, there was another mass shooting in America (the Orlando Pulse Nightclub), more Islamic terror (in Germany, Orlando Fl., Turkey, and elsewhere) as par for the course, and no recession. I was wrong about China and oil prices.
Predictions for 2017:
Home prices keep rising, especially in the Bay Area
Trump walks back on immigration and border control, to the disappointment of some of his supporters, putting tax cuts, defense, and stimulus first
Trump beats expectations for his inaugural year despite his inexperience
Stocks keep rising for an 8th year in a row, making this the longest bull market ever
US economy keeps growing, making this the longest expansion ever
Treasury yields fall as post-Trump inflation fears subside and the usual weakness in China and Europe continues
Valuations for Snapchat, Uber, Airbnb, and Pinterest keep rising. No web 2.0 bubble burst.
Yellen raises rates twice
Another mass shooting in the United States and more Islamic terror
Plans for 2017:
Publish the rest of the Wealth, Individualism, and Intellectualism series. Its already written, and whole thing is over 15,000 words, but I am releasing it in parts.