2015 Market Predictions

My 2015 prediction/wish list:

1. American economic exceptionalism continues unimpeded. US stock market, US economy, and US dollar will continue to outperform global peers on a inflation adjusted basis. Between 2011-2014, adjusted for inflation, the S&P 500 has beaten everything.
Aaron sums it up perfectly:

It may be too early to enjoy the decline. America may have its flaws, but the rest of the world is doing much worse. We have the fastest real GDP growth in the world, least corruption, strongest inflation adjusted stock market performance, strongest currency, best tech companies, most prestigious institutions of higher learning, best fed, best consumer, and so on. Liberalism is a problem, but because of our reserve currency status and American economic exceptionalism, there is reason for hope, especially because of web 2.0, consumer spending, good demographics, and other tailwinds.

2. Sectors: energy, materials, commodities sectors remain weak. Biotech, healthcare, real estate, utilities, and transports remain strong. S&P 500 will rise 10-15%.

3. Treasury yields will remain low due to Europe weakness and flight to safety.

4. Home prices will keep rising, especially in expensive areas like the Bay Area.

5. Congress: lots of dithering, but GOP supermajority will make debt ceiling standoffs a thing of the past; this is bullish for equities.

6. Oil will climb back to $70 or so.

7. Technology: web 2.0 valuations will keep rising. No bubble bursting, sorry libs. Snapchat will be worth $30-40 billion. Uber $50 billion.

Facebook stock going to $130.

2015 Buy list:

Facebook FB
Ali Baba BABA
Google GOOG
Priceline PCLN
Visa V
Mastercard MA
Healthcare etf XLV
Johnson & Johnson JNJ

8. Dollar may finally show some weakness once the dow crosses 20,000.

9. Interest rates not going up this year, but even if they do it’s no reason to sell:

The left has warned for years that the market will crash as soon as the fed begins raising rates, but the evidence obviously shows otherwise, and are in for a big disappointment when the market actually rallies.

10. My wish: I hope we see a sizable spike in unemployment towards the end of the year, causing Obama’s approval rating to fall in time for 2016 campaigns and delaying any possible rate hike.

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